WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
🇦🇷 Argentina vs Algeria 🇩🇿 WINNER HIT
FIFA World Cup 2026, Group J, Matchday 1 · Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City (~270 m, neutral site)
Kickoff Jun 17, 2026 · 01:00 UTC
Kickoff Jun 17, 2026 · 01:00 UTC
Final · Argentina 3–0 Algeria
Goals: 17' Lionel Messi (Argentina); 60' Lionel Messi (Argentina); 76' Lionel Messi (Argentina)
Actual stats: xG 1.26 – 0.32 · 4 corners · 0 cards (0 red)
Prediction vs result 5/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Argentina | Argentina (3-0) | HIT |
| Score | 1-1 | 3-0 | MISS |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 (52.9%) | 3 goals | HIT |
| BTTS | Yes (56.6%) | No | MISS |
| Corners | Under 8.5 (51.9%) | 4 corners | HIT |
| Cards | Over 3.5 (52.5%) | 0 cards | MISS |
| Red card | No (89.1%) | No | HIT |
| AH | Argentina -0.50 | Full Win | HIT |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina win | 48.0% | 1.40 | 67.3% | -32.8% |
| Draw | 25.6% | 4.50 | 20.9% | +15.4% |
| Algeria win | 26.4% | 8.00 | 11.8% | +111.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.9% | 2.00 | 47.4% | +5.7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.1% | 1.80 | 52.6% | -15.1% |
| Both teams score: yes | 56.6% | 2.20 | 42.3% | +24.6% |
| Both teams score: no | 43.4% | 1.62 | 57.7% | -30.0% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 8.53) | 48.1% | 2.00 | 46.3% | -3.7% |
| Under 8.5 corners | 51.9% | 1.73 | 53.7% | -10.4% |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 3.79) | 52.5% | 1.67 | 55.8% | -12.5% |
| Under 3.5 cards | 47.5% | 2.10 | 44.2% | -0.3% |
| Any red card | 10.9% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals Argentina 1.64 – 1.18 Algeria · fair Asian handicap Argentina -0.50
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — Argentina vs Algeria (FIFA World Cup 2026, Group J, Matchday 1)
Venue: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City (~270 m, neutral site)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
Argentina: record DWLWWWWWWW, 2.50 GF / 0.30 GA,
xG 2.03 / xGA 0.61.
Algeria: record LWWWWLWDWW, 2.70 GF / 1.10 GA,
xG 2.49 / xGA 0.91.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. Argentina atk 1.22 def 0.62; Algeria atk 1.40 def 1.09.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.0/1.0 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda Argentina 1.64, Algeria 1.18
after 85% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'Argentina': ['No major absences reported'], 'Algeria': ['No major absences reported']}.
Context: Argentina heavy favourites; Algeria AFCON regulars, a real side (not a minnow). Model tends to run cold on giants like Argentina — watch for a disagreement flag. Neutral venue.
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 Argentina 48.0% /
draw 25.6% / Algeria 26.4%. Winner Argentina; score 1-1; fair AH Argentina -0.50.
Over 2.5 52.9%; BTTS 56.6%.
4. EVENTS. Referee Szymon Marciniak (Poland): 4.09 Y + 0.1 R/match
blended (weight 0.41) with WC base 3.5147 -> expected
cards 3.79, P(over 3.5) 52.5%; P(any red)
10.9%. Corners expected 8.5 (scale
1.0259) -> P(over 8.5) 48.1%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.