WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
🇦🇷 Argentina vs Austria 🇦🇹 WINNER HIT
FIFA World Cup 2026, Group J, Matchday 3 · AT&T Stadium, Arlington (neutral)
Kickoff Jun 22, 2026 · 17:00 UTC
Kickoff Jun 22, 2026 · 17:00 UTC
Final · Argentina 2–0 Austria
Goals: 38' Lionel Messi (Argentina); 90' Lionel Messi (Argentina)
Actual stats: xG 2.65 – 0.5 · 4 corners · 4 cards (0 red)
Prediction vs result 6/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Argentina | Argentina (2-0) | HIT |
| Score | 1-0 | 2-0 | MISS |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 (58.4%) | 2 goals | HIT |
| BTTS | No (53.6%) | No | HIT |
| Corners | Under 8.5 (74.9%) | 4 corners | HIT |
| Cards | Under 3.5 (60.4%) | 4 cards | MISS |
| Red card | No (86.9%) | No | HIT |
| AH | Argentina -0.50 | Full Win | HIT |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina win | 51.3% | 1.53 | 62.5% | -21.5% |
| Draw | 27.9% | 4.20 | 22.8% | +17.3% |
| Austria win | 20.8% | 6.50 | 14.7% | +34.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.6% | 1.91 | 50.0% | -20.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 58.4% | 1.91 | 50.0% | +11.4% |
| Both teams score: yes | 46.4% | 2.00 | 46.7% | -7.2% |
| Both teams score: no | 53.6% | 1.75 | 53.3% | -6.2% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 6.85) | 25.1% | 1.83 | 50.0% | -53.9% |
| Under 8.5 corners | 74.9% | 1.83 | 50.0% | +37.2% |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 3.19) | 39.6% | 2.00 | 46.3% | -20.7% |
| Under 3.5 cards | 60.4% | 1.73 | 53.7% | +4.3% |
| Any red card | 13.1% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals Argentina 1.49 – 0.88 Austria · fair Asian handicap Argentina -0.50
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — Argentina vs Austria (FIFA World Cup 2026, Group J, Matchday 3)
Venue: AT&T Stadium, Arlington (neutral)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
Argentina: record WLWWWWWWWW, 2.70 GF / 0.20 GA,
xG 1.96 / xGA 0.57.
Austria: record WWWLWDWWWW, 2.60 GF / 0.50 GA,
xG 1.91 / xGA 0.98.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. Argentina atk 1.26 def 0.59; Austria atk 1.00 def 0.95.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.0/1.0 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda Argentina 1.49, Austria 0.88
after 85% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'Argentina': ['No major absences reported'], 'Austria': ['No major absences reported']}.
Context: Group J MD3. Argentina heavy favourites; Austria a real UEFA side. Expect the model to under-rate Argentina (cold-on-elites). Neutral venue. MD3 rotation risk if group is decided.
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 Argentina 51.3% /
draw 27.9% / Austria 20.8%. Winner Argentina; score 1-0; fair AH Argentina -0.50.
Over 2.5 41.6%; BTTS 46.4%.
4. EVENTS. Referee Amin Omar (EGY): 3.7 Y + 0.15 R/match
blended (weight 0.29) with WC base 2.9307 -> expected
cards 3.19, P(over 3.5) 39.6%; P(any red)
13.1%. Corners expected 6.8 (scale
0.9785) -> P(over 8.5) 25.1%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.