WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
🇦🇷 Argentina vs Cabo Verde 🇨🇻 WINNER MISS
FIFA World Cup 2026, Round of 32 · Neutral site (Hard Rock Stadium, Miami)
Kickoff Jul 03, 2026 · 22:00 UTC
Kickoff Jul 03, 2026 · 22:00 UTC
Round of 32 · who goes through
To advance: Argentina 65.8% / Cabo Verde 34.2%
= P(win in 90′) + ½·P(draw); a level game at 90′ goes to extra time / penalties (treated as a coin flip). 1X2 and Asian handicap (Argentina -0.75) below are the 90-minute markets.
Final (90′) · Argentina 1–1 Cabo Verde
Argentina advanced after extra time (3-2) · model to-advance pick Argentina 65.8% ADVANCE CALL HIT
Goals: 29' Lionel Messi (Argentina); 59' Deroy Duarte (Cabo Verde); 92' Lisandro Martínez (Argentina); 103' Sidny Lopes Cabral (Cabo Verde); 111' Diney Borges (Argentina)
Actual stats: xG 2.26 – 0.47 · 16 corners · 2 cards (0 red)
Prediction vs result 4/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Argentina | Draw (1-1) | MISS |
| Score | 1-1 | 1-1 | HIT |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 (55.5%) | 2 goals | MISS |
| BTTS | Yes (57.1%) | Yes | HIT |
| Corners | Under 8.5 (57.2%) | 16 corners | MISS |
| Cards | Under 3.5 (65.0%) | 2 cards | HIT |
| Red card | No (87.8%) | No | HIT |
| AH | Argentina -0.75 | Loss | MISS |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina win | 53.8% | 1.17 | 81.0% | -37.1% |
| Draw | 24.0% | 7.50 | 12.6% | +80.3% |
| Cabo Verde win | 22.2% | 15.00 | 6.3% | +233.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.5% | 1.67 | 56.9% | -7.6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.5% | 2.20 | 43.1% | -2.0% |
| Both teams score: yes | 57.1% | 2.75 | 33.7% | +57.0% |
| Both teams score: no | 42.9% | 1.40 | 66.3% | -39.9% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 8.15) | 42.8% | 1.67 | 55.8% | -28.7% |
| Under 8.5 corners | 57.2% | 2.10 | 44.2% | +20.2% |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 2.99) | 35.0% | — | — | — |
| Under 3.5 cards | 65.0% | — | — | — |
| Any red card | 12.2% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals Argentina 1.82 – 1.12 Cabo Verde · fair Asian handicap Argentina -0.75
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — Argentina vs Cabo Verde (FIFA World Cup 2026, Round of 32)
Venue: Neutral site (Hard Rock Stadium, Miami)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
Argentina: record WWWWWWWWWW, 2.90 GF / 0.20 GA,
xG 2.02 / xGA 0.59.
Cabo Verde: record WLDLWWWDDD, 2.30 GF / 1.50 GA,
xG 1.02 / xGA 1.59.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. Argentina atk 1.36 def 0.62; Cabo Verde atk 1.42 def 1.04.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.0/1.0 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda Argentina 1.82, Cabo Verde 1.12
after 90% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'Argentina': ['No major absences reported'], 'Cabo Verde': ['WC debutants — thin data vs elite op+']}.
Context: Round of 32. Argentina (holders' core, Messi) heavy favourites vs WC debutants Cabo Verde. Expect the model to under-rate Argentina (cold-on-elites). Knockout: a draw goes to ET/pens. Neutral venue.
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 Argentina 53.8% /
draw 24.0% / Cabo Verde 22.2%. Winner Argentina; score 1-1; fair AH Argentina -0.75.
Over 2.5 55.5%; BTTS 57.1%.
4. EVENTS. Referee TBD: 4.2 Y + 0.13 R/match
blended (weight 0.20) with WC base 2.6438 -> expected
cards 2.99, P(over 3.5) 35.0%; P(any red)
12.2%. Corners expected 8.1 (scale
0.964) -> P(over 8.5) 42.8%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.