Argentina vs Switzerland — WC2026 Tracker

WC2026 Model Tracker

Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment

🇦🇷 Argentina vs Switzerland 🇨🇭 WINNER MISS

FIFA World Cup 2026, Quarter-final · Neutral site (Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City)
Kickoff Jul 12, 2026 · 01:00 UTC

Quarter-final · who goes through

To advance: Argentina 60.1% / Switzerland 39.9%

= P(win in 90′) + ½·P(draw); a level game at 90′ goes to extra time / penalties (treated as a coin flip). 1X2 and Asian handicap (Argentina -0.50) below are the 90-minute markets.

Final (90′) · Argentina 1–1 Switzerland

Argentina advanced after extra time (3-1) · model to-advance pick Argentina 60.1% ADVANCE CALL HIT

Goals: 10' Alexis Mac Allister (Argentina); 67' Dan Ndoye (Switzerland); 112' Julián Alvarez (Argentina); 120' Lautaro Martínez (Argentina)

Actual stats: xG 1.94 – 0.47 · 10 corners · 5 cards (0 red)

Prediction vs result 4/8 markets hit

Market	Model called	Actual	Outcome
1X2	Argentina	Draw (1-1)	MISS
Score	1-1	1-1	HIT
O/U 2.5	Under 2.5 (51.2%)	2 goals	HIT
BTTS	Yes (53.7%)	Yes	HIT
Corners	Under 8.5 (60.6%)	10 corners	MISS
Cards	Under 3.5 (65.0%)	5 cards	MISS
Red card	No (87.8%)	No	HIT
AH	Argentina -0.50	Loss	MISS

Model vs market

Market	Model	Book odds	Book p*	EV
Argentina win	46.7%	1.70	55.7%	-20.6%
Draw	26.8%	3.50	27.1%	-6.1%
Switzerland win	26.5%	5.50	17.2%	+45.6%
Over 2.5 goals	48.8%	2.20	43.1%	+7.4%
Under 2.5 goals	51.2%	1.67	56.9%	-14.7%
Both teams score: yes	53.7%	2.10	44.2%	+12.7%
Both teams score: no	46.3%	1.67	55.8%	-22.8%
Over 8.5 corners (exp 7.9)	39.4%	—	—	—
Under 8.5 corners	60.6%	—	—	—
Over 3.5 cards (exp 2.99)	35.0%	2.20	42.3%	-22.9%
Under 3.5 cards	65.0%	1.62	57.7%	+5.0%
Any red card	12.2%	—	—	—

Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals Argentina 1.54 – 1.11 Switzerland · fair Asian handicap Argentina -0.50

In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.

Model reasoning (chain of thought)

PREDICTION RATIONALE — Argentina vs Switzerland  (FIFA World Cup 2026, Quarter-final)
Venue: Neutral site (Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City)

1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
   Argentina: record WWWWWWWWWW, 2.80 GF / 0.60 GA,
   xG 1.87 / xGA 0.6.
   Switzerland: record DLDWDDWWWW, 2.20 GF / 1.30 GA,
   xG 1.5 / xGA 1.0.
   Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.

2. RATINGS. Argentina atk 1.26 def 0.76; Switzerland atk 1.24 def 0.88.
   NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.0/1.0 (both teams
   travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
   from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda Argentina 1.54, Switzerland 1.12
   after 90% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
   Injuries: {'Argentina': ['No major absences reported'], 'Switzerland': ['No major absences reported']}.
   Context: Quarter-final. Argentina (through past Egypt after the Cabo Verde ET scare) vs Switzerland, who have ground out three straight knockout results (Algeria, Colombia on pens). Argentina favoured on talent; the Swiss floor is high. Recalibrated settings. Knockout: a draw goes to ET/pens. Neutral venue.

3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 Argentina 46.7% /
   draw 26.8% / Switzerland 26.5%. Winner Argentina; score 1-1; fair AH Argentina -0.50.
   Over 2.5 48.8%; BTTS 53.7%.

4. EVENTS. Referee TBD: 4.2 Y + 0.13 R/match
   blended (weight 0.20) with WC base 2.6438 -> expected
   cards 2.99, P(over 3.5) 35.0%; P(any red)
   12.2%. Corners expected 7.9 (scale
   0.964) -> P(over 8.5) 39.4%.

5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
   probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.