WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
🇦🇺 Australia vs Egypt 🇪🇬 WINNER MISS
FIFA World Cup 2026, Round of 32 · Neutral site (AT&T Stadium, Arlington)
Kickoff Jul 03, 2026 · 18:00 UTC
Kickoff Jul 03, 2026 · 18:00 UTC
Round of 32 · who goes through
To advance: Australia 47.2% / Egypt 52.8%
= P(win in 90′) + ½·P(draw); a level game at 90′ goes to extra time / penalties (treated as a coin flip). 1X2 and Asian handicap (Australia +0.00) below are the 90-minute markets.
Final (90′) · Australia 1–1 Egypt
Egypt advanced after extra time (pens 2-4) · model to-advance pick Egypt 52.8% ADVANCE CALL HIT
Goals: 13' Emam Ashour (Egypt); 55' Mohamed Hany (Australia)
Actual stats: xG 0.87 – 1.36 · 11 corners · 2 cards (0 red)
Prediction vs result 4/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Egypt | Draw (1-1) | MISS |
| Score | 1-1 | 1-1 | HIT |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 (63.8%) | 2 goals | HIT |
| BTTS | No (55.3%) | Yes | MISS |
| Corners | Under 8.5 (65.3%) | 11 corners | MISS |
| Cards | Under 3.5 (65.0%) | 2 cards | HIT |
| Red card | No (87.8%) | No | HIT |
| AH | Australia +0.00 | Push | PUSH |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australia win | 31.4% | 3.25 | 29.2% | +2.0% |
| Draw | 31.7% | 2.88 | 32.9% | -8.7% |
| Egypt win | 36.9% | 2.50 | 37.9% | -7.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36.2% | 2.75 | 34.4% | -0.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 63.8% | 1.44 | 65.6% | -7.8% |
| Both teams score: yes | 44.7% | 2.20 | 42.3% | -1.6% |
| Both teams score: no | 55.3% | 1.62 | 57.7% | -10.7% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 7.57) | 34.7% | 1.91 | 48.5% | -33.7% |
| Under 8.5 corners | 65.3% | 1.80 | 51.5% | +17.5% |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 2.99) | 35.0% | — | — | — |
| Under 3.5 cards | 65.0% | — | — | — |
| Any red card | 12.2% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals Australia 1.02 – 1.13 Egypt · fair Asian handicap Australia +0.00
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — Australia vs Egypt (FIFA World Cup 2026, Round of 32)
Venue: Neutral site (AT&T Stadium, Arlington)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
Australia: record LLLWWLDWLD, 1.00 GF / 1.10 GA,
xG 0.87 / xGA 0.98.
Egypt: record WLLWDWLDWD, 1.60 GF / 1.20 GA,
xG 0.96 / xGA 1.24.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. Australia atk 0.77 def 0.81; Egypt atk 1.04 def 0.99.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.0/1.0 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda Australia 1.02, Egypt 1.13
after 90% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'Australia': ['No major absences reported'], 'Egypt': ['No major absences reported']}.
Context: Round of 32. Roughly even: Australia vs Egypt (Salah). A coin-flip tie between two mid-tier sides. Knockout: a draw goes to ET/pens. Neutral venue.
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 Australia 31.4% /
draw 31.7% / Egypt 36.9%. Winner Egypt; score 1-1; fair AH Australia +0.00.
Over 2.5 36.2%; BTTS 44.7%.
4. EVENTS. Referee TBD: 4.2 Y + 0.13 R/match
blended (weight 0.20) with WC base 2.6438 -> expected
cards 2.99, P(over 3.5) 35.0%; P(any red)
12.2%. Corners expected 7.6 (scale
0.964) -> P(over 8.5) 34.7%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.