WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
🇦🇺 Australia vs Türkiye 🇹🇷 WINNER MISS
FIFA World Cup 2026, Group D, Matchday 1 · BC Place, Vancouver (sea level, indoor, neutral site)
Kickoff Jun 14, 2026 · 04:00 UTC
Kickoff Jun 14, 2026 · 04:00 UTC
Final · Australia 2–0 Türkiye
Goals: 27' Nestory Irankunda (Australia); 75' Connor Metcalfe (Australia)
Actual stats: xG 1.18 – 1.36 · 13 corners · 1 cards (0 red)
Prediction vs result 5/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Türkiye | Australia (2-0) | MISS |
| Score | 0-1 | 2-0 | MISS |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 (57.2%) | 2 goals | HIT |
| BTTS | No (50.9%) | No | HIT |
| Corners | Over 8.5 (53.9%) | 13 corners | HIT |
| Cards | Over 3.5 (63.5%) | 1 cards | MISS |
| Red card | No (86.5%) | No | HIT |
| AH | Australia +0.25 | Full Win | HIT |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australia win | 26.1% | 5.00 | 18.9% | +30.6% |
| Draw | 28.7% | 3.70 | 25.5% | +6.2% |
| Türkiye win | 45.2% | 1.70 | 55.6% | -23.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.8% | 2.00 | 47.4% | -14.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 57.2% | 1.80 | 52.6% | +3.0% |
| Both teams score: yes | 49.0% | 1.95 | 48.0% | -4.4% |
| Both teams score: no | 50.9% | 1.80 | 52.0% | -8.3% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 8.96) | 53.9% | — | — | — |
| Under 8.5 corners | 46.1% | — | — | — |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 4.37) | 63.5% | 1.73 | 53.7% | +9.6% |
| Under 3.5 cards | 36.5% | 2.00 | 46.3% | -26.9% |
| Any red card | 13.5% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals Australia 1.01 – 1.39 Türkiye · fair Asian handicap Australia +0.25
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — Australia vs Türkiye (FIFA World Cup 2026, Group D, Matchday 1)
Venue: BC Place, Vancouver (sea level, indoor, neutral site)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
Australia: record WWWLLLWWLD, 1.30 GF / 1.00 GA,
xG 0.91 / xGA 1.14.
Türkiye: record WLWWWDWWWW, 2.50 GF / 1.30 GA,
xG 1.45 / xGA 1.19.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. Australia atk 0.80 def 0.89; Türkiye atk 1.21 def 0.93.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.0/1.0 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda Australia 1.01, Türkiye 1.39
after 85% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'Australia': ['Mohamed Touré doubt'], 'Türkiye': ['Kenan Yıldız doubt (calf)', 'Ferdi Kadıoğlu returned to training']}.
Context: Closely matched Group D clash. Türkiye more individual talent (Güler, Çalhanoğlu); Australia organised and physical. Neutral indoor venue.
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 Australia 26.1% /
draw 28.7% / Türkiye 45.2%. Winner Türkiye; score 0-1; fair AH Australia +0.25.
Over 2.5 42.8%; BTTS 49.0%.
4. EVENTS. Referee Jesús Valenzuela (Venezuela): 5.01 Y + 0.16 R/match
blended (weight 0.50) with WC base 3.55 -> expected
cards 4.37, P(over 3.5) 63.5%; P(any red)
13.5%. Corners expected 9.0 (scale
0.9952) -> P(over 8.5) 53.9%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.