WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
🇦🇹 Austria vs Jordan WINNER MISS
FIFA World Cup 2026, Group J, Matchday 1 · Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara CA (sea level, neutral site)
Kickoff Jun 17, 2026 · 04:00 UTC
Kickoff Jun 17, 2026 · 04:00 UTC
Final · Austria 3–1 Jordan
Goals: 21' Romano Schmid (Austria); 50' Ali Olwan (Jordan); 76' Yazan Al-Arab (Austria); 90' Marko Arnautović (Austria)
Actual stats: xG 1.66 – 0.53 · 7 corners · 1 cards (0 red)
Prediction vs result 4/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Jordan | Austria (3-1) | MISS |
| Score | 1-1 | 3-1 | MISS |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 (53.1%) | 4 goals | HIT |
| BTTS | Yes (58.1%) | Yes | HIT |
| Corners | Over 8.5 (51.2%) | 7 corners | MISS |
| Cards | Over 3.5 (51.0%) | 1 cards | MISS |
| Red card | No (88.7%) | No | HIT |
| AH | Austria +0.00 | Full Win | HIT |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austria win | 35.6% | 1.36 | 69.4% | -51.6% |
| Draw | 26.4% | 5.25 | 18.0% | +38.7% |
| Jordan win | 38.0% | 7.50 | 12.6% | +185.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.1% | 1.73 | 54.9% | -8.3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.9% | 2.10 | 45.1% | -1.4% |
| Both teams score: yes | 58.1% | 2.05 | 45.3% | +19.1% |
| Both teams score: no | 41.9% | 1.70 | 54.7% | -28.8% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 8.76) | 51.2% | 1.73 | 53.7% | -11.5% |
| Under 8.5 corners | 48.8% | 2.00 | 46.3% | -2.4% |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 3.72) | 51.0% | 2.20 | 42.3% | +12.2% |
| Under 3.5 cards | 49.0% | 1.62 | 57.7% | -20.8% |
| Any red card | 11.3% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals Austria 1.39 – 1.44 Jordan · fair Asian handicap Austria +0.00
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — Austria vs Jordan (FIFA World Cup 2026, Group J, Matchday 1)
Venue: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara CA (sea level, neutral site)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
Austria: record WWWWLWDWWW, 2.70 GF / 0.40 GA,
xG 2.21 / xGA 0.93.
Jordan: record WWWWWLDDLL, 1.70 GF / 1.50 GA,
xG 0.73 / xGA 2.71.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. Austria atk 0.97 def 0.98; Jordan atk 1.15 def 1.11.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.0/1.0 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda Austria 1.39, Jordan 1.44
after 85% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'Austria': ['No major absences reported'], 'Jordan': ['No major absences reported']}.
Context: Austria favoured; Jordan reached the 2024 Asian Cup final, a genuine contest. Neutral venue; Jordan's AFC slate has patchy xG.
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 Austria 35.6% /
draw 26.4% / Jordan 38.0%. Winner Jordan; score 1-1; fair AH Austria +0.00.
Over 2.5 53.1%; BTTS 58.1%.
4. EVENTS. Referee Dahane Beida (Mauritania): 3.9 Y + 0.11 R/match
blended (weight 0.41) with WC base 3.5147 -> expected
cards 3.72, P(over 3.5) 51.0%; P(any red)
11.3%. Corners expected 8.8 (scale
1.0259) -> P(over 8.5) 51.2%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.