WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
🇧🇪 Belgium vs Egypt 🇪🇬 WINNER MISS
FIFA World Cup 2026, Group G, Matchday 1 · Lumen Field, Seattle (sea level, neutral site)
Kickoff Jun 15, 2026 · 19:00 UTC
Kickoff Jun 15, 2026 · 19:00 UTC
Final · Belgium 1–1 Egypt
Goals: 19' Emam Ashour (Egypt); 66' Mohamed Hany (Belgium)
Actual stats: xG 1.35 – 1.08 · 9 corners · 4 cards (0 red)
Prediction vs result 5/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Belgium | Draw (1-1) | MISS |
| Score | 1-0 | 1-1 | MISS |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 (53.2%) | 2 goals | HIT |
| BTTS | Yes (50.4%) | Yes | HIT |
| Corners | Over 8.5 (69.1%) | 9 corners | HIT |
| Cards | Over 3.5 (60.8%) | 4 cards | HIT |
| Red card | No (82.7%) | No | HIT |
| AH | Belgium -0.50 | Loss | MISS |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium win | 52.4% | 1.60 | 59.9% | -16.1% |
| Draw | 26.3% | 4.10 | 23.4% | +7.9% |
| Egypt win | 21.2% | 5.75 | 16.7% | +22.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.8% | 1.91 | 50.0% | -10.7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.2% | 1.91 | 50.0% | +1.6% |
| Both teams score: yes | 50.4% | 1.95 | 48.0% | -1.8% |
| Both teams score: no | 49.6% | 1.80 | 52.0% | -10.6% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 10.22) | 69.1% | — | — | — |
| Under 8.5 corners | 30.9% | — | — | — |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 4.22) | 60.8% | 1.91 | 48.5% | +16.1% |
| Under 3.5 cards | 39.2% | 1.80 | 51.5% | -29.5% |
| Any red card | 17.3% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals Belgium 1.61 – 0.96 Egypt · fair Asian handicap Belgium -0.50
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — Belgium vs Egypt (FIFA World Cup 2026, Group G, Matchday 1)
Venue: Lumen Field, Seattle (sea level, neutral site)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
Belgium: record WWDWDWWDWW, 3.70 GF / 0.60 GA,
xG 2.63 / xGA 0.48.
Egypt: record WDWWLLWDWL, 1.50 GF / 1.00 GA,
xG 0.74 / xGA 1.03.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. Belgium atk 1.51 def 0.68; Egypt atk 0.97 def 0.87.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.0/1.0 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda Belgium 1.61, Egypt 0.96
after 85% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'Belgium': ['No major absences reported'], 'Egypt': ['No major absences reported']}.
Context: Group G. Belgium favoured but Egypt (Salah) are a genuine side. Card-happy referee. Neutral venue, both travelling.
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 Belgium 52.4% /
draw 26.3% / Egypt 21.2%. Winner Belgium; score 1-0; fair AH Belgium -0.50.
Over 2.5 46.8%; BTTS 50.4%.
4. EVENTS. Referee Ramon Abatti (Brazil): 4.77 Y + 0.25 R/match
blended (weight 0.45) with WC base 3.5742 -> expected
cards 4.22, P(over 3.5) 60.8%; P(any red)
17.3%. Corners expected 10.2 (scale
1.0068) -> P(over 8.5) 69.1%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.