WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
🇧🇪 Belgium vs Senegal 🇸🇳 WINNER MISS
FIFA World Cup 2026, Round of 32 · Neutral site (Lumen Field, Seattle)
Kickoff Jul 01, 2026 · 20:00 UTC
Kickoff Jul 01, 2026 · 20:00 UTC
Round of 32 · who goes through
To advance: Belgium 62.2% / Senegal 37.8%
= P(win in 90′) + ½·P(draw); a level game at 90′ goes to extra time / penalties (treated as a coin flip). 1X2 and Asian handicap (Belgium -0.50) below are the 90-minute markets.
Final (90′) · Belgium 2–2 Senegal
Belgium advanced after extra time (3-2) · model to-advance pick Belgium 62.2% ADVANCE CALL HIT
Goals: 24' Habib Diarra (Senegal); 51' Ismaïla Sarr (Senegal); 86' Romelu Lukaku (Belgium); 89' Youri Tielemans (Belgium); 120' Youri Tielemans (Belgium)
Actual stats: xG 1.74 – 3.58 · 6 corners · 3 cards (0 red)
Prediction vs result 3/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Belgium | Draw (2-2) | MISS |
| Score | 1-1 | 2-2 | MISS |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 (50.6%) | 4 goals | MISS |
| BTTS | Yes (53.6%) | Yes | HIT |
| Corners | Over 8.5 (68.2%) | 6 corners | MISS |
| Cards | Under 3.5 (65.0%) | 3 cards | HIT |
| Red card | No (87.8%) | No | HIT |
| AH | Belgium -0.50 | Loss | MISS |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium win | 49.1% | 2.20 | 43.2% | +7.9% |
| Draw | 26.3% | 3.20 | 29.7% | -15.8% |
| Senegal win | 24.6% | 3.50 | 27.1% | -13.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.4% | 2.10 | 45.1% | +3.7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.6% | 1.73 | 54.9% | -12.6% |
| Both teams score: yes | 53.6% | 1.80 | 52.0% | -3.6% |
| Both teams score: no | 46.4% | 1.95 | 48.0% | -9.4% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 10.13) | 68.2% | 1.83 | 50.0% | +25.1% |
| Under 8.5 corners | 31.8% | 1.83 | 50.0% | -41.7% |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 2.99) | 35.0% | — | — | — |
| Under 3.5 cards | 65.0% | — | — | — |
| Any red card | 12.2% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals Belgium 1.59 – 1.08 Senegal · fair Asian handicap Belgium -0.50
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — Belgium vs Senegal (FIFA World Cup 2026, Round of 32)
Venue: Neutral site (Lumen Field, Seattle)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
Belgium: record WDWWDWWDDW, 3.10 GF / 0.80 GA,
xG 2.26 / xGA 0.65.
Senegal: record WWLWWLDLLW, 1.70 GF / 1.30 GA,
xG 1.97 / xGA 1.34.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. Belgium atk 1.48 def 0.74; Senegal atk 1.13 def 0.83.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.0/1.0 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda Belgium 1.59, Senegal 1.08
after 90% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'Belgium': ['No major absences reported'], 'Senegal': ['No major absences reported']}.
Context: Round of 32. Genuinely even: Belgium vs a strong Senegal. A coin-flip tie. Knockout: a draw goes to ET/pens. Neutral venue.
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 Belgium 49.1% /
draw 26.3% / Senegal 24.6%. Winner Belgium; score 1-1; fair AH Belgium -0.50.
Over 2.5 49.4%; BTTS 53.6%.
4. EVENTS. Referee TBD: 4.2 Y + 0.13 R/match
blended (weight 0.20) with WC base 2.6438 -> expected
cards 2.99, P(over 3.5) 35.0%; P(any red)
12.2%. Corners expected 10.1 (scale
0.964) -> P(over 8.5) 68.2%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.