WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
🇧🇦 Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Qatar 🇶🇦 WINNER HIT
FIFA World Cup 2026, Group B, Matchday 3 · Neutral site (Lumen Field, Seattle)
Kickoff Jun 24, 2026 · 19:00 UTC
Kickoff Jun 24, 2026 · 19:00 UTC
Final · Bosnia & Herzegovina 3–1 Qatar
Goals: 29' Kerim Alajbegović (Bosnia & Herzegovina); 34' Mahmud Abunada (Bosnia & Herzegovina); 42' Hassan Al Haydos (Qatar); 80' Ermin Mahmić (Bosnia & Herzegovina)
Actual stats: xG 0.68 – 0.77 · 10 corners · 2 cards (0 red)
Prediction vs result 6/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bosnia & Herzegovina | Bosnia & Herzegovina (3-1) | HIT |
| Score | 1-0 | 3-1 | MISS |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 (51.7%) | 4 goals | HIT |
| BTTS | No (50.0%) | Yes | MISS |
| Corners | Over 8.5 (60.4%) | 10 corners | HIT |
| Cards | Under 3.5 (61.3%) | 2 cards | HIT |
| Red card | No (87.8%) | No | HIT |
| AH | Bosnia & Herzegovina -1.00 | Full Win | HIT |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bosnia & Herzegovina win | 62.5% | 1.36 | 69.4% | -14.9% |
| Draw | 22.5% | 5.25 | 18.0% | +18.3% |
| Qatar win | 14.9% | 7.50 | 12.6% | +12.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.7% | 1.57 | 60.2% | -18.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.3% | 2.38 | 39.8% | +14.8% |
| Both teams score: yes | 50.0% | 1.91 | 50.0% | -4.6% |
| Both teams score: no | 50.0% | 1.91 | 50.0% | -4.5% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 9.46) | 60.4% | — | — | — |
| Under 8.5 corners | 39.6% | — | — | — |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 3.15) | 38.7% | 1.73 | 53.7% | -33.2% |
| Under 3.5 cards | 61.3% | 2.00 | 46.3% | +22.6% |
| Any red card | 12.2% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals Bosnia & Herzegovina 1.91 – 0.86 Qatar · fair Asian handicap Bosnia & Herzegovina -1.00
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Qatar (FIFA World Cup 2026, Group B, Matchday 3)
Venue: Neutral site (Lumen Field, Seattle)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
Bosnia & Herzegovina: record DWWDWWDDDL, 2.30 GF / 1.60 GA,
xG 1.36 / xGA 1.49.
Qatar: record DWLLDLLDDL, 0.50 GF / 1.60 GA,
xG 0.5 / xGA 2.22.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. Bosnia & Herzegovina atk 1.21 def 1.28; Qatar atk 0.49 def 1.26.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.0/1.0 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda Bosnia & Herzegovina 1.91, Qatar 0.86
after 90% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'Bosnia & Herzegovina': ['No major absences reported'], 'Qatar': ['No major absences reported']}.
Context: Group B MD3. Bosnia favoured on tier vs Qatar (lost 6-0 to Canada). Likely a dead rubber for both. Neutral venue.
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 Bosnia & Herzegovina 62.5% /
draw 22.5% / Qatar 14.9%. Winner Bosnia & Herzegovina; score 1-0; fair AH Bosnia & Herzegovina -1.00.
Over 2.5 51.7%; BTTS 50.0%.
4. EVENTS. Referee TBD: 4.2 Y + 0.13 R/match
blended (weight 0.24) with WC base 2.7763 -> expected
cards 3.15, P(over 3.5) 38.7%; P(any red)
12.2%. Corners expected 9.5 (scale
0.9451) -> P(over 8.5) 60.4%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.