WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
🇧🇷 Brazil vs Haiti 🇭🇹 WINNER HIT
FIFA World Cup 2026, Group C, Matchday 3 · Neutral site (USA)
Kickoff Jun 20, 2026 · 00:30 UTC
Kickoff Jun 20, 2026 · 00:30 UTC
Final · Brazil 3–0 Haiti
Goals: 23' Matheus Cunha (Brazil); 36' Matheus Cunha (Brazil); 45' Vinícius Júnior (Brazil)
Actual stats: xG 1.75 – 0.23 · 8 corners · 4 cards (0 red)
Prediction vs result 5/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Brazil | Brazil (3-0) | HIT |
| Score | 1-0 | 3-0 | MISS |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 (56.4%) | 3 goals | HIT |
| BTTS | Yes (52.1%) | No | MISS |
| Corners | Under 8.5 (59.1%) | 8 corners | HIT |
| Cards | Under 3.5 (57.5%) | 4 cards | MISS |
| Red card | No (88.2%) | No | HIT |
| AH | Brazil -1.25 | Full Win | HIT |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil win | 66.0% | 1.10 | 86.8% | -27.4% |
| Draw | 20.5% | 11.00 | 8.7% | +125.7% |
| Haiti win | 13.5% | 21.00 | 4.5% | +183.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.4% | 1.33 | 71.8% | -24.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.6% | 3.40 | 28.2% | +48.2% |
| Both teams score: yes | 52.1% | 2.25 | 41.1% | +17.2% |
| Both teams score: no | 47.9% | 1.57 | 58.9% | -24.7% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 8.01) | 40.9% | — | — | — |
| Under 8.5 corners | 59.1% | — | — | — |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 3.33) | 42.5% | — | — | — |
| Under 3.5 cards | 57.5% | — | — | — |
| Any red card | 11.8% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals Brazil 2.10 – 0.88 Haiti · fair Asian handicap Brazil -1.25
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — Brazil vs Haiti (FIFA World Cup 2026, Group C, Matchday 3)
Venue: Neutral site (USA)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
Brazil: record LWLWDLWWWD, 2.30 GF / 1.20 GA,
xG 1.86 / xGA 0.8.
Haiti: record DWLWWLDWLL, 1.50 GF / 1.10 GA,
xG 1.56 / xGA 1.05.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. Brazil atk 1.41 def 0.78; Haiti atk 0.79 def 1.17.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.0/1.0 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda Brazil 2.10, Haiti 0.88
after 85% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'Brazil': ['No major absences reported'], 'Haiti': ['Thin xG data sample']}.
Context: Group C MD3. Brazil heavy favourites; Haiti debutants. Neutral venue. MD3 rotation risk if group is decided.
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 Brazil 66.0% /
draw 20.5% / Haiti 13.5%. Winner Brazil; score 1-0; fair AH Brazil -1.25.
Over 2.5 56.4%; BTTS 52.1%.
4. EVENTS. Referee Espen Eskas (Norway): 3.8 Y + 0.12 R/match
blended (weight 0.31) with WC base 3.0543 -> expected
cards 3.33, P(over 3.5) 42.5%; P(any red)
11.8%. Corners expected 8.0 (scale
0.9834) -> P(over 8.5) 40.9%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.