WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
🇧🇷 Brazil vs Morocco 🇲🇦 WINNER MISS
FIFA World Cup 2026, Group C, Matchday 1 · MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford NJ (sea level, neutral site)
Kickoff Jun 13, 2026 · 22:00 UTC
Kickoff Jun 13, 2026 · 22:00 UTC
Final · Brazil 1–1 Morocco
Goals: 21' Ismael Saibari (Morocco); 32' Vinícius Júnior (Brazil)
Actual stats: xG 1.26 – 1.37 · 8 corners · 2 cards (0 red)
Prediction vs result 5/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Morocco | Draw (1-1) | MISS |
| Score | 1-1 | 1-1 | HIT |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 (55.1%) | 2 goals | HIT |
| BTTS | Yes (51.8%) | Yes | HIT |
| Corners | Under 8.5 (67.2%) | 8 corners | HIT |
| Cards | Over 3.5 (55.0%) | 2 cards | MISS |
| Red card | No (89.1%) | No | HIT |
| AH | Brazil +0.00 | Push | PUSH |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil win | 34.3% | 1.70 | 56.1% | -41.7% |
| Draw | 28.7% | 3.60 | 26.5% | +3.4% |
| Morocco win | 37.0% | 5.50 | 17.4% | +103.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.9% | 2.20 | 43.1% | -1.2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55.1% | 1.67 | 56.9% | -8.2% |
| Both teams score: yes | 51.8% | 2.10 | 44.2% | +8.8% |
| Both teams score: no | 48.2% | 1.67 | 55.8% | -19.7% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 7.43) | 32.8% | 1.73 | 53.7% | -43.3% |
| Under 8.5 corners | 67.2% | 2.00 | 46.3% | +34.4% |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 3.92) | 55.0% | 1.67 | 55.8% | -8.3% |
| Under 3.5 cards | 45.0% | 2.10 | 44.2% | -5.6% |
| Any red card | 10.9% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals Brazil 1.22 – 1.27 Morocco · fair Asian handicap Brazil +0.00
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — Brazil vs Morocco (FIFA World Cup 2026, Group C, Matchday 1)
Venue: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford NJ (sea level, neutral site)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
Brazil: record WLWLWDLWWW, 2.50 GF / 1.10 GA,
xG 1.93 / xGA 0.73.
Morocco: record WWWWWDWWWD, 2.60 GF / 0.50 GA,
xG 1.89 / xGA 0.62.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. Brazil atk 1.48 def 0.73; Morocco atk 1.35 def 0.62.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.0/1.0 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda Brazil 1.22, Morocco 1.27
after 85% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'Brazil': ['Neymar OUT (calf)', 'Rodrygo OUT', 'Militão OUT', 'Estêvão OUT'], 'Morocco': ['Aguerd OUT (groin)', 'Ezzalzouli OUT (knee)', 'Mazraoui doubt (shoulder)']}.
Context: Group C heavyweight opener at MetLife. Brazil deeper squad even without Neymar/Rodrygo; Morocco (2022 semi-finalists) missing two starters. Large support for both; treated neutral.
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 Brazil 34.3% /
draw 28.7% / Morocco 37.0%. Winner Morocco; score 1-1; fair AH Brazil +0.00.
Over 2.5 44.9%; BTTS 51.8%.
4. EVENTS. Referee Slavko Vinčić (Slovenia): 4.18 Y + 0.1 R/match
blended (weight 0.50) with WC base 3.55 -> expected
cards 3.92, P(over 3.5) 55.0%; P(any red)
10.9%. Corners expected 7.4 (scale
0.9952) -> P(over 8.5) 32.8%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.