WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
🇧🇷 Brazil vs Norway 🇳🇴 WINNER MISS
FIFA World Cup 2026, Round of 16 · Neutral site (MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford)
Kickoff Jul 05, 2026 · 20:00 UTC
Kickoff Jul 05, 2026 · 20:00 UTC
Round of 16 · who goes through
To advance: Brazil 63.2% / Norway 36.8%
= P(win in 90′) + ½·P(draw); a level game at 90′ goes to extra time / penalties (treated as a coin flip). 1X2 and Asian handicap (Brazil -0.50) below are the 90-minute markets.
Final (90′) · Brazil 1–2 Norway
Norway advanced · model to-advance pick Brazil 63.2% ADVANCE CALL MISS
Goals: 79' Erling Haaland (Norway); 90' Neymar (Brazil); 90' Erling Haaland (Norway)
Actual stats: xG 2.73 – 0.84 · 10 corners · 1 cards (0 red)
Prediction vs result 4/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Brazil | Norway (1-2) | MISS |
| Score | 1-1 | 1-2 | MISS |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 (57.9%) | 3 goals | HIT |
| BTTS | Yes (59.9%) | Yes | HIT |
| Corners | Under 8.5 (53.2%) | 10 corners | MISS |
| Cards | Under 3.5 (65.0%) | 1 cards | HIT |
| Red card | No (87.8%) | No | HIT |
| AH | Brazil -0.50 | Loss | MISS |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil win | 51.2% | 1.75 | 54.3% | -10.4% |
| Draw | 24.0% | 3.70 | 25.7% | -11.2% |
| Norway win | 24.8% | 4.75 | 20.0% | +17.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.9% | 1.67 | 56.9% | -3.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.1% | 2.20 | 43.1% | -7.3% |
| Both teams score: yes | 59.9% | 1.62 | 57.7% | -3.3% |
| Both teams score: no | 40.2% | 2.20 | 42.3% | -11.7% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 8.44) | 46.8% | — | — | — |
| Under 8.5 corners | 53.2% | — | — | — |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 2.99) | 35.0% | — | — | — |
| Under 3.5 cards | 65.0% | — | — | — |
| Any red card | 12.2% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals Brazil 1.82 – 1.23 Norway · fair Asian handicap Brazil -0.50
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — Brazil vs Norway (FIFA World Cup 2026, Round of 16)
Venue: Neutral site (MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
Brazil: record WDLWWWDWWW, 2.40 GF / 0.90 GA,
xG 2.13 / xGA 0.68.
Norway: record WWLDWDWWLW, 2.30 GF / 1.40 GA,
xG 1.81 / xGA 1.19.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. Brazil atk 1.52 def 0.68; Norway atk 1.42 def 0.93.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.0/1.0 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda Brazil 1.82, Norway 1.23
after 90% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'Brazil': ['No major absences reported'], 'Norway': ['No major absences reported']}.
Context: Round of 16. Brazil favoured, but Norway (Haaland, Ødegaard) are the most dangerous 'underdog' left. Expect the model to under-rate Brazil (cold-on-elites) — but Norway's attack is elite too. Knockout: a draw goes to ET/pens. Neutral venue.
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 Brazil 51.2% /
draw 24.0% / Norway 24.8%. Winner Brazil; score 1-1; fair AH Brazil -0.50.
Over 2.5 57.9%; BTTS 59.9%.
4. EVENTS. Referee TBD: 4.2 Y + 0.13 R/match
blended (weight 0.20) with WC base 2.6438 -> expected
cards 2.99, P(over 3.5) 35.0%; P(any red)
12.2%. Corners expected 8.4 (scale
0.964) -> P(over 8.5) 46.8%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.