WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
🇨🇦 Canada vs Morocco 🇲🇦 WINNER HIT
FIFA World Cup 2026, Round of 16 · Neutral site (NRG Stadium, Houston)
Kickoff Jul 04, 2026 · 17:00 UTC
Kickoff Jul 04, 2026 · 17:00 UTC
Round of 16 · who goes through
To advance: Canada 44.2% / Morocco 55.8%
= P(win in 90′) + ½·P(draw); a level game at 90′ goes to extra time / penalties (treated as a coin flip). 1X2 and Asian handicap (Canada +0.25) below are the 90-minute markets.
Final (90′) · Canada 0–3 Morocco
Morocco advanced · model to-advance pick Morocco 55.8% ADVANCE CALL HIT
Goals: 50' Azzedine Ounahi (Morocco); 82' Azzedine Ounahi (Morocco); 90' Soufiane Rahimi (Morocco)
Actual stats: xG 0.84 – 0.82 · 12 corners · 8 cards (0 red)
Prediction vs result 4/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Morocco | Morocco (0-3) | HIT |
| Score | 1-1 | 0-3 | MISS |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 (60.4%) | 3 goals | MISS |
| BTTS | No (52.8%) | No | HIT |
| Corners | Over 8.5 (64.8%) | 12 corners | HIT |
| Cards | Under 3.5 (65.0%) | 8 cards | MISS |
| Red card | No (87.8%) | No | HIT |
| AH | Canada +0.25 | Loss | MISS |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada win | 29.1% | 5.25 | 18.0% | +52.9% |
| Draw | 30.2% | 3.40 | 27.9% | +2.7% |
| Morocco win | 40.7% | 1.75 | 54.1% | -28.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.6% | 2.20 | 43.1% | -12.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 60.4% | 1.67 | 56.9% | +0.6% |
| Both teams score: yes | 47.2% | 2.00 | 46.7% | -5.5% |
| Both teams score: no | 52.8% | 1.75 | 53.3% | -7.7% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 9.83) | 64.8% | 1.83 | 50.0% | +18.8% |
| Under 8.5 corners | 35.2% | 1.83 | 50.0% | -35.5% |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 2.99) | 35.0% | — | — | — |
| Under 3.5 cards | 65.0% | — | — | — |
| Any red card | 12.2% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals Canada 1.03 – 1.25 Morocco · fair Asian handicap Canada +0.25
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — Canada vs Morocco (FIFA World Cup 2026, Round of 16)
Venue: Neutral site (NRG Stadium, Houston)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
Canada: record WWDDWDDWLW, 1.70 GF / 0.60 GA,
xG 1.74 / xGA 0.76.
Morocco: record WDWWWDDWWW, 2.60 GF / 0.90 GA,
xG 1.8 / xGA 0.72.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. Canada atk 1.07 def 0.70; Morocco atk 1.35 def 0.73.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.0/1.0 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda Canada 1.03, Morocco 1.25
after 90% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'Canada': ['No major absences reported'], 'Morocco': ['No major absences reported']}.
Context: Round of 16. Morocco favoured vs co-hosts Canada — but the tie is in Houston, so Canada gets NO host edge (neutral venue, unlike their group games in Toronto). Knockout: a draw goes to ET/pens.
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 Canada 29.1% /
draw 30.2% / Morocco 40.7%. Winner Morocco; score 1-1; fair AH Canada +0.25.
Over 2.5 39.6%; BTTS 47.2%.
4. EVENTS. Referee TBD: 4.2 Y + 0.13 R/match
blended (weight 0.20) with WC base 2.6438 -> expected
cards 2.99, P(over 3.5) 35.0%; P(any red)
12.2%. Corners expected 9.8 (scale
0.964) -> P(over 8.5) 64.8%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.