WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
🇨🇦 Canada vs Qatar 🇶🇦 WINNER HIT
FIFA World Cup 2026, Group B, Matchday 2 · Canada (HOST — home advantage applies)
Kickoff Jun 18, 2026 · 22:00 UTC
Kickoff Jun 18, 2026 · 22:00 UTC
Final · Canada 6–0 Qatar
Goals: 16' Cyle Larin (Canada); 29' Jonathan David (Canada); 45' Jonathan David (Canada); 64' Nathan-Dylan Saliba (Canada); 75' Mohamed Naceur Almanai (Canada); 90' Jonathan David (Canada)
Actual stats: xG 4.6 – 0.22 · 20 corners · 4 cards (2 red)
Prediction vs result 4/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Canada | Canada (6-0) | HIT |
| Score | 1-0 | 6-0 | MISS |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 (64.5%) | 6 goals | MISS |
| BTTS | No (59.1%) | No | HIT |
| Corners | Over 8.5 (57.3%) | 20 corners | HIT |
| Cards | Under 3.5 (50.8%) | 4 cards | MISS |
| Red card | No (84.8%) | Yes | MISS |
| AH | Canada -0.50 | Full Win | HIT |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada win | 51.2% | 1.29 | 73.9% | -34.0% |
| Draw | 29.9% | 5.75 | 16.6% | +72.0% |
| Qatar win | 18.9% | 10.00 | 9.5% | +89.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35.4% | 1.73 | 54.9% | -38.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 64.5% | 2.10 | 45.1% | +35.6% |
| Both teams score: yes | 40.9% | 2.20 | 42.3% | -9.9% |
| Both teams score: no | 59.1% | 1.62 | 57.7% | -4.6% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 9.22) | 57.3% | — | — | — |
| Under 8.5 corners | 42.7% | — | — | — |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 3.63) | 49.2% | 2.20 | 42.3% | +8.2% |
| Under 3.5 cards | 50.8% | 1.62 | 57.7% | -17.9% |
| Any red card | 15.2% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals Canada 1.36 – 0.75 Qatar · fair Asian handicap Canada -0.50
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — Canada vs Qatar (FIFA World Cup 2026, Group B, Matchday 2)
Venue: Canada (HOST — home advantage applies)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
Canada: record LDDWWDDWDD, 0.90 GF / 0.50 GA,
xG 1.25 / xGA 0.82.
Qatar: record LDWLLDLLDD, 0.60 GF / 1.40 GA,
xG 0.64 / xGA 1.91.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. Canada atk 0.79 def 0.70; Qatar atk 0.52 def 1.20.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.1012/0.8974 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda Canada 1.37, Qatar 0.75
after 85% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'Canada': ['No major absences reported'], 'Qatar': ['No major absences reported']}.
Context: Group B MD2. Canada are co-HOSTS — home advantage applies (not neutral). Qatar travelling.
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 Canada 51.2% /
draw 29.9% / Qatar 18.9%. Winner Canada; score 1-0; fair AH Canada -0.50.
Over 2.5 35.4%; BTTS 40.9%.
4. EVENTS. Referee Cristián Garay (Chile): 4.4 Y + 0.2 R/match
blended (weight 0.32) with WC base 3.178 -> expected
cards 3.63, P(over 3.5) 49.2%; P(any red)
15.2%. Corners expected 9.2 (scale
0.9509) -> P(over 8.5) 57.3%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.