WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
Côte d'Ivoire vs Ecuador WINNER MISS
FIFA World Cup 2026, Group E, Matchday 1 · Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia (sea level, neutral site)
Kickoff Jun 14, 2026 · 23:00 UTC
Kickoff Jun 14, 2026 · 23:00 UTC
Final · Côte d'Ivoire 1–0 Ecuador
Goals: 90' Amad Diallo (Côte d'Ivoire)
Actual stats: xG 1.52 – 1.01 · 8 corners · 4 cards (0 red)
Prediction vs result 5/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ecuador | Côte d'Ivoire (1-0) | MISS |
| Score | 0-0 | 1-0 | MISS |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 (65.2%) | 1 goals | HIT |
| BTTS | No (56.4%) | No | HIT |
| Corners | Over 8.5 (61.5%) | 8 corners | MISS |
| Cards | Over 3.5 (53.6%) | 4 cards | HIT |
| Red card | No (88.2%) | No | HIT |
| AH | Côte d'Ivoire +0.00 | Full Win | HIT |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Côte d'Ivoire win | 30.5% | 3.25 | 29.1% | -0.7% |
| Draw | 32.2% | 2.75 | 34.4% | -11.4% |
| Ecuador win | 37.2% | 2.60 | 36.4% | -3.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34.8% | 3.00 | 31.8% | +4.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 65.2% | 1.40 | 68.2% | -8.7% |
| Both teams score: yes | 43.6% | 2.25 | 41.1% | -2.0% |
| Both teams score: no | 56.4% | 1.57 | 58.9% | -11.3% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 9.55) | 61.5% | 1.83 | 50.0% | +12.7% |
| Under 8.5 corners | 38.5% | 1.83 | 50.0% | -29.3% |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 3.84) | 53.6% | 1.62 | 57.7% | -13.5% |
| Under 3.5 cards | 46.4% | 2.20 | 42.3% | +2.2% |
| Any red card | 11.8% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals Côte d'Ivoire 0.98 – 1.11 Ecuador · fair Asian handicap Côte d'Ivoire +0.00
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — Côte d'Ivoire vs Ecuador (FIFA World Cup 2026, Group E, Matchday 1)
Venue: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia (sea level, neutral site)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
Côte d'Ivoire: record LWWDWWLWWW, 1.90 GF / 0.80 GA,
xG 2.05 / xGA 1.19.
Ecuador: record DWDDDWDDWW, 1.20 GF / 0.50 GA,
xG 1.4 / xGA 0.84.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. Côte d'Ivoire atk 1.21 def 0.88; Ecuador atk 0.94 def 0.59.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.0/1.0 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda Côte d'Ivoire 0.98, Ecuador 1.11
after 85% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'Ivory Coast': ['No major absences reported'], 'Ecuador': ['No major absences reported']}.
Context: Evenly matched mid-tier sides. Ecuador defensively solid; Ivory Coast pacey and physical. Note: Ivory Coast's recent slate leans on AFCON fixtures where xG coverage is patchy.
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 Côte d'Ivoire 30.5% /
draw 32.2% / Ecuador 37.2%. Winner Ecuador; score 0-0; fair AH Côte d'Ivoire +0.00.
Over 2.5 34.8%; BTTS 43.6%.
4. EVENTS. Referee François Letexier (France): 4.0 Y + 0.12 R/match
blended (weight 0.47) with WC base 3.6027 -> expected
cards 3.84, P(over 3.5) 53.6%; P(any red)
11.8%. Corners expected 9.6 (scale
1.0341) -> P(over 8.5) 61.5%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.