WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
🇨🇴 Colombia vs DR Congo 🇨🇩 WINNER HIT
FIFA World Cup 2026, Group K, Matchday 2 · Neutral site (USA)
Kickoff Jun 24, 2026 · 02:00 UTC
Kickoff Jun 24, 2026 · 02:00 UTC
Final · Colombia 1–0 DR Congo
Goals: 76' Daniel Muñoz (Colombia)
Actual stats: xG 0.98 – 0.37 · 9 corners · 3 cards (0 red)
Prediction vs result 6/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Colombia | Colombia (1-0) | HIT |
| Score | 1-1 | 1-0 | MISS |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 (63.8%) | 1 goals | HIT |
| BTTS | No (55.3%) | No | HIT |
| Corners | Under 8.5 (66.8%) | 9 corners | MISS |
| Cards | Under 3.5 (59.7%) | 3 cards | HIT |
| Red card | No (87.8%) | No | HIT |
| AH | Colombia +0.00 | Full Win | HIT |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colombia win | 36.9% | 1.53 | 61.8% | -43.5% |
| Draw | 31.7% | 4.00 | 23.6% | +26.7% |
| DR Congo win | 31.4% | 6.50 | 14.5% | +104.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36.2% | 2.10 | 45.1% | -24.0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 63.8% | 1.73 | 54.9% | +10.2% |
| Both teams score: yes | 44.7% | 2.20 | 42.3% | -1.6% |
| Both teams score: no | 55.3% | 1.62 | 57.7% | -10.7% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 7.46) | 33.2% | 2.00 | 46.3% | -33.5% |
| Under 8.5 corners | 66.8% | 1.73 | 53.7% | +15.3% |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 3.22) | 40.3% | — | — | — |
| Under 3.5 cards | 59.7% | — | — | — |
| Any red card | 12.2% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals Colombia 1.12 – 1.02 DR Congo · fair Asian handicap Colombia +0.00
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — Colombia vs DR Congo (FIFA World Cup 2026, Group K, Matchday 2)
Venue: Neutral site (USA)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
Colombia: record WWDWWLLWWW, 2.50 GF / 1.10 GA,
xG 1.61 / xGA 0.79.
DR Congo: record WWDWLWWDLD, 1.20 GF / 0.50 GA,
xG 0.81 / xGA 0.7.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. Colombia atk 1.45 def 0.87; DR Congo atk 0.87 def 0.59.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.0/1.0 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda Colombia 1.13, DR Congo 1.02
after 90% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'Colombia': ['No major absences reported'], 'DR Congo': ['No major absences reported']}.
Context: Group K. Colombia favoured after a 3-1 MD1 win over Uzbekistan; DR Congo a physical CAF side fresh off a 1-1 draw with Portugal. Competitive. Neutral venue.
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 Colombia 36.9% /
draw 31.7% / DR Congo 31.4%. Winner Colombia; score 1-1; fair AH Colombia +0.00.
Over 2.5 36.2%; BTTS 44.7%.
4. EVENTS. Referee TBD: 4.2 Y + 0.13 R/match
blended (weight 0.26) with WC base 2.8392 -> expected
cards 3.22, P(over 3.5) 40.3%; P(any red)
12.2%. Corners expected 7.5 (scale
0.9325) -> P(over 8.5) 33.2%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.