WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
🇨🇴 Colombia vs Ghana 🇬🇭 WINNER HIT
FIFA World Cup 2026, Round of 32 · Neutral site (Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City)
Kickoff Jul 04, 2026 · 01:30 UTC
Kickoff Jul 04, 2026 · 01:30 UTC
Round of 32 · who goes through
To advance: Colombia 70.3% / Ghana 29.6%
= P(win in 90′) + ½·P(draw); a level game at 90′ goes to extra time / penalties (treated as a coin flip). 1X2 and Asian handicap (Colombia -0.75) below are the 90-minute markets.
Final (90′) · Colombia 1–0 Ghana
Colombia advanced · model to-advance pick Colombia 70.3% ADVANCE CALL HIT
Goals: 14' Jhon Arias (Colombia)
Actual stats: xG 2.04 – 0.27 · 5 corners · 5 cards (0 red)
Prediction vs result 7/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Colombia | Colombia (1-0) | HIT |
| Score | 1-0 | 1-0 | HIT |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 (64.9%) | 1 goals | HIT |
| BTTS | No (61.4%) | No | HIT |
| Corners | Under 8.5 (59.7%) | 5 corners | HIT |
| Cards | Under 3.5 (65.0%) | 5 cards | MISS |
| Red card | No (87.8%) | No | HIT |
| AH | Colombia -0.75 | Half Win | HIT |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colombia win | 56.0% | 1.53 | 62.1% | -14.4% |
| Draw | 28.7% | 3.90 | 24.4% | +12.1% |
| Ghana win | 15.3% | 7.00 | 13.6% | +6.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35.1% | 2.20 | 43.1% | -22.7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 64.9% | 1.67 | 56.9% | +8.1% |
| Both teams score: yes | 38.6% | 2.25 | 41.1% | -13.2% |
| Both teams score: no | 61.4% | 1.57 | 58.9% | -3.5% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 7.97) | 40.3% | 1.83 | 50.0% | -26.1% |
| Under 8.5 corners | 59.7% | 1.83 | 50.0% | +9.4% |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 2.99) | 35.0% | — | — | — |
| Under 3.5 cards | 65.0% | — | — | — |
| Any red card | 12.2% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals Colombia 1.44 – 0.66 Ghana · fair Asian handicap Colombia -0.75
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — Colombia vs Ghana (FIFA World Cup 2026, Round of 32)
Venue: Neutral site (Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
Colombia: record DWWLLWWWWD, 1.60 GF / 0.80 GA,
xG 1.58 / xGA 0.76.
Ghana: record WLLLLLDWDL, 0.60 GF / 1.50 GA,
xG 0.89 / xGA 1.44.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. Colombia atk 1.11 def 0.70; Ghana atk 0.69 def 0.98.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.0/1.0 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda Colombia 1.44, Ghana 0.66
after 90% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'Colombia': ['No major absences reported'], 'Ghana': ['No major absences reported']}.
Context: Round of 32. Colombia favoured vs Ghana, who beat Croatia in the group. Competitive. Knockout: a draw goes to ET/pens. Neutral venue.
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 Colombia 56.0% /
draw 28.7% / Ghana 15.3%. Winner Colombia; score 1-0; fair AH Colombia -0.75.
Over 2.5 35.1%; BTTS 38.6%.
4. EVENTS. Referee TBD: 4.2 Y + 0.13 R/match
blended (weight 0.20) with WC base 2.6438 -> expected
cards 2.99, P(over 3.5) 35.0%; P(any red)
12.2%. Corners expected 8.0 (scale
0.964) -> P(over 8.5) 40.3%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.