WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
Curaçao vs Côte d'Ivoire 🇨🇮 WINNER HIT
FIFA World Cup 2026, Group E, Matchday 3 · Neutral site (Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia)
Kickoff Jun 25, 2026 · 20:00 UTC
Kickoff Jun 25, 2026 · 20:00 UTC
Final · Curaçao 0–2 Côte d'Ivoire
Goals: 7' Nicolas Pépé (Côte d'Ivoire); 64' Nicolas Pépé (Côte d'Ivoire)
Actual stats: xG 0.5 – 1.31 · 10 corners · 3 cards (0 red)
Prediction vs result 4/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Côte d'Ivoire | Côte d'Ivoire (0-2) | HIT |
| Score | 1-1 | 0-2 | MISS |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 (60.5%) | 2 goals | MISS |
| BTTS | Yes (61.6%) | No | MISS |
| Corners | Over 8.5 (52.3%) | 10 corners | HIT |
| Cards | Under 3.5 (63.2%) | 3 cards | HIT |
| Red card | No (87.8%) | No | HIT |
| AH | Curaçao +0.50 | Loss | MISS |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curaçao win | 24.1% | 15.00 | 6.4% | +261.9% |
| Draw | 23.2% | 8.00 | 11.9% | +85.8% |
| Côte d'Ivoire win | 52.6% | 1.17 | 81.7% | -38.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.5% | 1.44 | 65.6% | -12.6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.5% | 2.75 | 34.4% | +8.6% |
| Both teams score: yes | 61.6% | 2.20 | 42.3% | +35.4% |
| Both teams score: no | 38.5% | 1.62 | 57.7% | -37.9% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 8.84) | 52.3% | — | — | — |
| Under 8.5 corners | 47.6% | — | — | — |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 3.07) | 36.8% | — | — | — |
| Under 3.5 cards | 63.2% | — | — | — |
| Any red card | 12.2% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals Curaçao 1.26 – 1.91 Côte d'Ivoire · fair Asian handicap Curaçao +0.50
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — Curaçao vs Côte d'Ivoire (FIFA World Cup 2026, Group E, Matchday 3)
Venue: Neutral site (Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
Curaçao: record WDWDLLLWLD, 1.70 GF / 1.90 GA,
xG 0.54 / xGA 2.38.
Côte d'Ivoire: record WDWWLWWWWL, 1.90 GF / 0.90 GA,
xG 1.78 / xGA 1.3.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. Curaçao atk 1.08 def 1.15; Côte d'Ivoire atk 1.30 def 0.91.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.0/1.0 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda Curaçao 1.26, Côte d'Ivoire 1.91
after 90% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'Curaçao': ['WC debutants — thin data'], "Côte d'Ivoire": ['No major absences reported']}.
Context: Group E MD3. Côte d'Ivoire heavy favourites vs WC debutants Curaçao. Expect the model to under-rate the favourite. Neutral venue.
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 Curaçao 24.1% /
draw 23.2% / Côte d'Ivoire 52.6%. Winner Côte d'Ivoire; score 1-1; fair AH Curaçao +0.50.
Over 2.5 60.5%; BTTS 61.6%.
4. EVENTS. Referee TBD: 4.2 Y + 0.13 R/match
blended (weight 0.22) with WC base 2.7044 -> expected
cards 3.07, P(over 3.5) 36.8%; P(any red)
12.2%. Corners expected 8.8 (scale
0.9899) -> P(over 8.5) 52.3%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.