WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
🇨🇿 Czechia vs Mexico 🇲🇽 WINNER HIT
FIFA World Cup 2026, Group A, Matchday 3 · Estadio Azteca, Mexico City
Kickoff Jun 25, 2026 · 01:00 UTC
Kickoff Jun 25, 2026 · 01:00 UTC
Final · Czechia 0–3 Mexico
Goals: 55' Mateo Chávez (Mexico); 61' Julián Quiñones (Mexico); 90' Álvaro Fidalgo (Mexico)
Actual stats: xG 0.53 – 1.74 · 6 corners · 1 cards (0 red)
Prediction vs result 5/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mexico | Mexico (0-3) | HIT |
| Score | 0-1 | 0-3 | MISS |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 (59.1%) | 3 goals | MISS |
| BTTS | No (61.2%) | No | HIT |
| Corners | Under 8.5 (52.2%) | 6 corners | HIT |
| Cards | Under 3.5 (61.3%) | 1 cards | HIT |
| Red card | No (87.8%) | No | HIT |
| AH | Czechia +1.00 | Loss | MISS |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Czechia win | 11.1% | 3.70 | 25.6% | -59.1% |
| Draw | 24.1% | 3.80 | 24.9% | -8.4% |
| Mexico win | 64.8% | 1.91 | 49.5% | +23.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.9% | 2.00 | 47.4% | -18.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 59.1% | 1.80 | 52.6% | +6.3% |
| Both teams score: yes | 38.8% | 1.91 | 50.0% | -25.9% |
| Both teams score: no | 61.2% | 1.91 | 50.0% | +16.8% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 8.51) | 47.8% | 1.80 | 51.5% | -14.0% |
| Under 8.5 corners | 52.2% | 1.91 | 48.5% | -0.3% |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 3.15) | 38.7% | 2.00 | 46.3% | -22.6% |
| Under 3.5 cards | 61.3% | 1.73 | 53.7% | +5.9% |
| Any red card | 12.2% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals Czechia 0.61 – 1.72 Mexico · fair Asian handicap Czechia +1.00
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — Czechia vs Mexico (FIFA World Cup 2026, Group A, Matchday 3)
Venue: Estadio Azteca, Mexico City
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
Czechia: record DLWWWWWWLD, 2.60 GF / 1.50 GA,
xG 1.39 / xGA 1.14.
Mexico: record WWWDDWWWWW, 1.80 GF / 0.20 GA,
xG 1.2 / xGA 0.5.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. Czechia atk 1.05 def 1.16; Mexico atk 1.07 def 0.47.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 0.8359/1.1018 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda Czechia 0.61, Mexico 1.72
after 90% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'Czechia': ['No major absences reported'], 'Mexico': ['No major absences reported']}.
Context: Group A MD3. Played at Estadio Azteca, so Mexico (nominal away) have home advantage -> host_away routes the home edge to Mexico. NOTE: this is the generic ~10% home boost, not a venue-specific ALTITUDE term, so Mexico is still a floor.
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 Czechia 11.1% /
draw 24.1% / Mexico 64.8%. Winner Mexico; score 0-1; fair AH Czechia +1.00.
Over 2.5 40.9%; BTTS 38.8%.
4. EVENTS. Referee TBD: 4.2 Y + 0.13 R/match
blended (weight 0.24) with WC base 2.7763 -> expected
cards 3.15, P(over 3.5) 38.7%; P(any red)
12.2%. Corners expected 8.5 (scale
0.9451) -> P(over 8.5) 47.8%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.