WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
🇨🇿 Czechia vs South Africa 🇿🇦 WINNER MISS
FIFA World Cup 2026, Group A, Matchday 2 · Neutral site (Mexico/USA)
Kickoff Jun 18, 2026 · 16:00 UTC
Kickoff Jun 18, 2026 · 16:00 UTC
Final · Czechia 1–1 South Africa
Goals: 6' Michal Sadílek (Czechia); 83' Teboho Mokoena (South Africa)
Actual stats: xG 1.02 – 1.37 · 10 corners · 3 cards (0 red)
Prediction vs result 5/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Czechia | Draw (1-1) | MISS |
| Score | 1-1 | 1-1 | HIT |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 (51.8%) | 2 goals | HIT |
| BTTS | Yes (53.0%) | Yes | HIT |
| Corners | Under 8.5 (54.3%) | 10 corners | MISS |
| Cards | Under 3.5 (53.4%) | 3 cards | HIT |
| Red card | No (89.1%) | No | HIT |
| AH | Czechia -0.50 | Loss | MISS |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Czechia win | 47.6% | 1.75 | 53.6% | -16.6% |
| Draw | 26.8% | 3.80 | 24.7% | +2.0% |
| South Africa win | 25.5% | 4.33 | 21.7% | +10.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.2% | 2.10 | 45.1% | +1.3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.8% | 1.73 | 54.9% | -10.6% |
| Both teams score: yes | 53.0% | 2.05 | 45.3% | +8.6% |
| Both teams score: no | 47.0% | 1.70 | 54.7% | -20.1% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 8.35) | 45.7% | 1.73 | 53.7% | -21.1% |
| Under 8.5 corners | 54.3% | 2.00 | 46.3% | +8.7% |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 3.51) | 46.6% | 1.73 | 53.7% | -19.5% |
| Under 3.5 cards | 53.4% | 2.00 | 46.3% | +6.8% |
| Any red card | 10.9% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals Czechia 1.54 – 1.08 South Africa · fair Asian handicap Czechia -0.50
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — Czechia vs South Africa (FIFA World Cup 2026, Group A, Matchday 2)
Venue: Neutral site (Mexico/USA)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
Czechia: record DDLWWWWWWL, 2.60 GF / 1.50 GA,
xG 1.42 / xGA 1.02.
South Africa: record WWLWLDLDDL, 1.20 GF / 1.30 GA,
xG 0.97 / xGA 0.8.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. Czechia atk 1.06 def 1.12; South Africa atk 0.68 def 1.19.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.0/1.0 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda Czechia 1.54, South Africa 1.08
after 85% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'Czechia': ['No major absences reported'], 'South Africa': ['No major absences reported']}.
Context: Group A matchday 2. Czechia favoured; South Africa beaten 2-0 by Mexico in MD1. Neutral venue; referee TBC.
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 Czechia 47.6% /
draw 26.8% / South Africa 25.5%. Winner Czechia; score 1-1; fair AH Czechia -0.50.
Over 2.5 48.2%; BTTS 53.0%.
4. EVENTS. Referee TBD: 3.8 Y + 0.1 R/match
blended (weight 0.35) with WC base 3.3054 -> expected
cards 3.51, P(over 3.5) 46.6%; P(any red)
10.9%. Corners expected 8.4 (scale
0.9827) -> P(over 8.5) 45.7%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.