WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
🇪🇨 Ecuador vs Germany WINNER MISS
FIFA World Cup 2026, Group E, Matchday 3 · Neutral site (MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford)
Kickoff Jun 25, 2026 · 20:00 UTC
Kickoff Jun 25, 2026 · 20:00 UTC
Final · Ecuador 2–1 Germany
Goals: 2' Leroy Sané (Germany); 9' Nilson Angulo (Ecuador); 77' Gonzalo Plata (Ecuador)
Actual stats: xG 1.27 – 0.65 · 5 corners · 4 cards (0 red)
Prediction vs result 2/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Germany | Ecuador (2-1) | MISS |
| Score | 0-1 | 2-1 | MISS |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 (55.6%) | 3 goals | MISS |
| BTTS | No (51.2%) | Yes | MISS |
| Corners | Over 8.5 (55.8%) | 5 corners | MISS |
| Cards | Under 3.5 (63.2%) | 4 cards | MISS |
| Red card | No (87.8%) | No | HIT |
| AH | Ecuador +0.50 | Full Win | HIT |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ecuador win | 21.7% | 5.00 | 18.9% | +8.4% |
| Draw | 27.2% | 4.75 | 19.9% | +29.3% |
| Germany win | 51.1% | 1.55 | 61.1% | -20.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.4% | 1.67 | 56.9% | -26.0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55.6% | 2.20 | 43.1% | +22.4% |
| Both teams score: yes | 48.8% | 1.70 | 54.7% | -17.1% |
| Both teams score: no | 51.2% | 2.05 | 45.3% | +5.0% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 9.11) | 55.8% | — | — | — |
| Under 8.5 corners | 44.2% | — | — | — |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 3.07) | 36.8% | — | — | — |
| Under 3.5 cards | 63.2% | — | — | — |
| Any red card | 12.2% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals Ecuador 0.94 – 1.53 Germany · fair Asian handicap Ecuador +0.50
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — Ecuador vs Germany (FIFA World Cup 2026, Group E, Matchday 3)
Venue: Neutral site (MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
Ecuador: record DDDWDDWWLD, 1.10 GF / 0.60 GA,
xG 1.5 / xGA 0.87.
Germany: record WWWWWWWWWW, 3.40 GF / 0.70 GA,
xG 2.58 / xGA 0.78.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. Ecuador atk 0.95 def 0.70; Germany atk 1.68 def 0.75.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.0/1.0 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda Ecuador 0.94, Germany 1.53
after 90% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'Ecuador': ['No major absences reported'], 'Germany': ['No major absences reported']}.
Context: Group E MD3. Germany favoured vs a solid, defensively strong Ecuador. Competitive; MD3 rotation risk if group is decided. Neutral venue.
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 Ecuador 21.7% /
draw 27.2% / Germany 51.1%. Winner Germany; score 0-1; fair AH Ecuador +0.50.
Over 2.5 44.4%; BTTS 48.8%.
4. EVENTS. Referee TBD: 4.2 Y + 0.13 R/match
blended (weight 0.22) with WC base 2.7044 -> expected
cards 3.07, P(over 3.5) 36.8%; P(any red)
12.2%. Corners expected 9.1 (scale
0.9899) -> P(over 8.5) 55.8%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.