WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
🏴 England vs Argentina 🇦🇷 WINNER MISS
FIFA World Cup 2026, Semi-final · Neutral site (Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta)
Kickoff Jul 15, 2026 · 19:00 UTC
Kickoff Jul 15, 2026 · 19:00 UTC
Semi-final · who goes through
To advance: England 50.2% / Argentina 49.8%
= P(win in 90′) + ½·P(draw); a level game at 90′ goes to extra time / penalties (treated as a coin flip). 1X2 and Asian handicap (England +0.00) below are the 90-minute markets.
Final (90′) · England 1–2 Argentina
Argentina advanced · model to-advance pick England 50.2% ADVANCE CALL MISS
Goals: 55' Anthony Gordon (England); 85' Enzo Fernández (Argentina); 90' Lautaro Martínez (Argentina)
Actual stats: xG 0.53 – 1.59 · 7 corners · 4 cards (0 red)
Prediction vs result 2/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | England | Argentina (1-2) | MISS |
| Score | 1-1 | 1-2 | MISS |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 (53.9%) | 3 goals | MISS |
| BTTS | Yes (52.7%) | Yes | HIT |
| Corners | Over 8.5 (50.1%) | 7 corners | MISS |
| Cards | Under 3.5 (65.0%) | 4 cards | MISS |
| Red card | No (87.8%) | No | HIT |
| AH | England +0.00 | Loss | MISS |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| England win | 36.1% | 2.70 | 35.2% | -2.6% |
| Draw | 28.4% | 2.88 | 33.0% | -18.3% |
| Argentina win | 35.6% | 3.00 | 31.7% | +6.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.1% | 2.38 | 39.8% | +9.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.9% | 1.57 | 60.2% | -15.2% |
| Both teams score: yes | 52.7% | 1.95 | 48.0% | +2.8% |
| Both teams score: no | 47.3% | 1.80 | 52.0% | -14.9% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 8.68) | 50.1% | 2.00 | 46.3% | +0.2% |
| Under 8.5 corners | 49.9% | 1.73 | 53.7% | -13.8% |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 2.99) | 35.0% | 1.91 | 48.5% | -33.1% |
| Under 3.5 cards | 65.0% | 1.80 | 51.5% | +16.9% |
| Any red card | 12.2% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals England 1.27 – 1.26 Argentina · fair Asian handicap England +0.00
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — England vs Argentina (FIFA World Cup 2026, Semi-final)
Venue: Neutral site (Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
England: record DLWWWDWWWW, 1.80 GF / 0.80 GA,
xG 1.92 / xGA 0.73.
Argentina: record WWWWWWWWWW, 2.90 GF / 0.70 GA,
xG 1.98 / xGA 0.57.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. England atk 1.35 def 0.66; Argentina atk 1.37 def 0.75.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.0/1.0 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda England 1.27, Argentina 1.26
after 90% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'England': ['No major absences reported'], 'Argentina': ['No major absences reported']}.
Context: Semi-final. England (Bellingham carrying the knockouts) vs Argentina (holders; two ET wins in three KO games). Prior check done pre-match: England residuals mixed (+117/-24/+84/+121/-34), Argentina mostly-positive but not one-directional (-23/+78/+24/+26) — neither meets the Spain standard, tiers unchanged (1.32 / 1.40). Knockout: a draw goes to ET/pens. Neutral venue.
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 England 36.1% /
draw 28.4% / Argentina 35.6%. Winner England; score 1-1; fair AH England +0.00.
Over 2.5 46.1%; BTTS 52.7%.
4. EVENTS. Referee TBD: 4.2 Y + 0.13 R/match
blended (weight 0.20) with WC base 2.6438 -> expected
cards 2.99, P(over 3.5) 35.0%; P(any red)
12.2%. Corners expected 8.7 (scale
0.964) -> P(over 8.5) 50.1%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.