WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results ยท a live, honest experiment
๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ England vs DR Congo ๐จ๐ฉ WINNER HIT
FIFA World Cup 2026, Round of 32 ยท Neutral site (Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta)
Kickoff Jul 01, 2026 ยท 16:00 UTC
Kickoff Jul 01, 2026 ยท 16:00 UTC
Round of 32 ยท who goes through
To advance: England 60.3% / DR Congo 39.7%
= P(win in 90โฒ) + ยฝยทP(draw); a level game at 90โฒ goes to extra time / penalties (treated as a coin flip). 1X2 and Asian handicap (England -0.25) below are the 90-minute markets.
Final (90โฒ) ยท England 2โ1 DR Congo
England advanced ยท model to-advance pick England 60.3% ADVANCE CALL HIT
Goals: 7' Brian Cipenga (DR Congo); 75' Harry Kane (England); 86' Harry Kane (England)
Actual stats: xG 2.04 โ 0.8 ยท 8 corners ยท 2 cards (0 red)
Prediction vs result 4/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | England | England (2-1) | HIT |
| Score | 0-0 | 2-1 | MISS |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 (71.4%) | 3 goals | MISS |
| BTTS | No (62.9%) | Yes | MISS |
| Corners | Over 8.5 (52.8%) | 8 corners | MISS |
| Cards | Under 3.5 (65.0%) | 2 cards | HIT |
| Red card | No (87.8%) | No | HIT |
| AH | England -0.25 | Full Win | HIT |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| England win | 43.1% | 1.27 | 74.8% | -45.2% |
| Draw | 34.3% | 5.50 | 17.3% | +88.7% |
| DR Congo win | 22.6% | 12.00 | 7.9% | +170.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 28.6% | 1.91 | 50.0% | -45.3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 71.4% | 1.91 | 50.0% | +36.3% |
| Both teams score: yes | 37.1% | 2.62 | 35.5% | -2.6% |
| Both teams score: no | 62.9% | 1.44 | 64.5% | -9.2% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 8.87) | 52.8% | โ | โ | โ |
| Under 8.5 corners | 47.2% | โ | โ | โ |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 2.99) | 35.0% | โ | โ | โ |
| Under 3.5 cards | 65.0% | โ | โ | โ |
| Any red card | 12.2% | โ | โ | โ |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals England 1.11 โ 0.74 DR Congo ยท fair Asian handicap England -0.25
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). โโโ = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE โ England vs DR Congo (FIFA World Cup 2026, Round of 32)
Venue: Neutral site (Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
England: record WWWDLWWWDW, 2.00 GF / 0.40 GA,
xG 1.98 / xGA 0.61.
DR Congo: record DWLWWDLDLW, 1.20 GF / 0.70 GA,
xG 1.04 / xGA 0.64.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. England atk 1.28 def 0.59; DR Congo atk 0.91 def 0.64.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.0/1.0 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies โ a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda England 1.11, DR Congo 0.74
after 90% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'England': ['No major absences reported'], 'DR Congo': ['No major absences reported']}.
Context: Round of 32. England favoured vs a physical DR Congo side that topped a tough group. Expect the model to under-rate England (cold-on-elites). Knockout: a draw goes to ET/pens. Neutral venue.
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 England 43.1% /
draw 34.3% / DR Congo 22.6%. Winner England; score 0-0; fair AH England -0.25.
Over 2.5 28.6%; BTTS 37.1%.
4. EVENTS. Referee TBD: 4.2 Y + 0.13 R/match
blended (weight 0.20) with WC base 2.6438 -> expected
cards 2.99, P(over 3.5) 35.0%; P(any red)
12.2%. Corners expected 8.9 (scale
0.964) -> P(over 8.5) 52.8%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.