WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
🏴 England vs Croatia 🇭🇷 WINNER HIT
FIFA World Cup 2026, Group L, Matchday 1 · Neutral site (USA)
Kickoff Jun 17, 2026 · 20:00 UTC
Kickoff Jun 17, 2026 · 20:00 UTC
Final · England 4–2 Croatia
Goals: 12' Harry Kane (England); 36' Martin Baturina (Croatia); 42' Harry Kane (England); 45' Petar Musa (Croatia); 47' Jude Bellingham (England); 85' Marcus Rashford (England)
Actual stats: xG 3.2 – 0.7 · 10 corners · 0 cards (0 red)
Prediction vs result 5/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | England | England (4-2) | HIT |
| Score | 1-0 | 4-2 | MISS |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 (55.5%) | 6 goals | MISS |
| BTTS | No (50.1%) | Yes | MISS |
| Corners | Over 8.5 (70.7%) | 10 corners | HIT |
| Cards | Under 3.5 (52.7%) | 0 cards | HIT |
| Red card | No (89.1%) | No | HIT |
| AH | England -0.50 | Full Win | HIT |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| England win | 47.8% | 1.70 | 55.8% | -18.7% |
| Draw | 27.8% | 3.75 | 25.3% | +4.2% |
| Croatia win | 24.4% | 5.00 | 19.0% | +22.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.5% | 2.10 | 45.1% | -6.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55.5% | 1.73 | 54.9% | -4.2% |
| Both teams score: yes | 49.9% | 2.00 | 46.7% | -0.2% |
| Both teams score: no | 50.1% | 1.75 | 53.3% | -12.3% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 10.37) | 70.7% | 1.80 | 51.5% | +27.3% |
| Under 8.5 corners | 29.3% | 1.91 | 48.5% | -44.1% |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 3.55) | 47.3% | — | — | — |
| Under 3.5 cards | 52.7% | — | — | — |
| Any red card | 10.9% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals England 1.48 – 1.00 Croatia · fair Asian handicap England -0.50
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — England vs Croatia (FIFA World Cup 2026, Group L, Matchday 1)
Venue: Neutral site (USA)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
England: record WWWWWWDLWW, 2.40 GF / 0.20 GA,
xG 2.2 / xGA 0.61.
Croatia: record WWDWWWWLLW, 1.90 GF / 1.00 GA,
xG 1.86 / xGA 0.92.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. England atk 1.34 def 0.60; Croatia atk 1.04 def 0.90.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.0/1.0 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda England 1.48, Croatia 1.00
after 85% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'England': ['No major absences reported'], 'Croatia': ['No major absences reported']}.
Context: Marquee Group L opener. England favoured; Croatia an experienced tournament side. Both well-covered. Neutral venue.
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 England 47.8% /
draw 27.8% / Croatia 24.4%. Winner England; score 1-0; fair AH England -0.50.
Over 2.5 44.5%; BTTS 49.9%.
4. EVENTS. Referee Clément Turpin (France): 3.9 Y + 0.1 R/match
blended (weight 0.35) with WC base 3.3054 -> expected
cards 3.55, P(over 3.5) 47.3%; P(any red)
10.9%. Corners expected 10.4 (scale
0.9827) -> P(over 8.5) 70.7%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.