WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
🇪🇸 Spain vs Austria 🇦🇹 WINNER HIT
FIFA World Cup 2026, Round of 32 · Neutral site (SoFi Stadium, Inglewood)
Kickoff Jul 02, 2026 · 19:00 UTC
Kickoff Jul 02, 2026 · 19:00 UTC
Round of 32 · who goes through
To advance: Spain 71.6% / Austria 28.4%
= P(win in 90′) + ½·P(draw); a level game at 90′ goes to extra time / penalties (treated as a coin flip). 1X2 and Asian handicap (Spain -0.75) below are the 90-minute markets.
Final (90′) · Spain 3–0 Austria
Spain advanced · model to-advance pick Spain 71.6% ADVANCE CALL HIT
Goals: 36' Mikel Oyarzabal (Spain); 66' Pedro Porro (Spain); 89' Mikel Oyarzabal (Spain)
Actual stats: xG 2.8 – 0.32 · 9 corners · 1 cards (0 red)
Prediction vs result 5/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Spain | Spain (3-0) | HIT |
| Score | 1-0 | 3-0 | MISS |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 (58.2%) | 3 goals | MISS |
| BTTS | No (56.6%) | No | HIT |
| Corners | Under 8.5 (65.9%) | 9 corners | MISS |
| Cards | Under 3.5 (65.0%) | 1 cards | HIT |
| Red card | No (87.8%) | No | HIT |
| AH | Spain -0.75 | Full Win | HIT |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain win | 58.6% | 1.33 | 70.9% | -22.0% |
| Draw | 26.0% | 5.25 | 18.0% | +36.4% |
| Austria win | 15.4% | 8.50 | 11.1% | +30.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.8% | 1.80 | 52.6% | -24.7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 58.2% | 2.00 | 47.4% | +16.4% |
| Both teams score: yes | 43.4% | 2.20 | 42.3% | -4.6% |
| Both teams score: no | 56.6% | 1.62 | 57.7% | -8.5% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 7.52) | 34.1% | — | — | — |
| Under 8.5 corners | 65.9% | — | — | — |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 2.99) | 35.0% | — | — | — |
| Under 3.5 cards | 65.0% | — | — | — |
| Any red card | 12.2% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals Spain 1.62 – 0.74 Austria · fair Asian handicap Spain -0.75
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — Spain vs Austria (FIFA World Cup 2026, Round of 32)
Venue: Neutral site (SoFi Stadium, Inglewood)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
Spain: record WWDWDDWDWW, 2.20 GF / 0.40 GA,
xG 2.13 / xGA 0.44.
Austria: record WLWDWWWWLD, 2.60 GF / 0.90 GA,
xG 1.73 / xGA 0.96.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. Spain atk 1.38 def 0.55; Austria atk 1.03 def 0.90.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.0/1.0 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda Spain 1.62, Austria 0.74
after 90% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'Spain': ['No major absences reported'], 'Austria': ['No major absences reported']}.
Context: Round of 32. Spain heavy favourites vs Austria. Expect the model to under-rate Spain (cold-on-elites) — and recall KO elites have been stumbling. Knockout: a draw goes to ET/pens. Neutral venue.
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 Spain 58.6% /
draw 26.0% / Austria 15.4%. Winner Spain; score 1-0; fair AH Spain -0.75.
Over 2.5 41.8%; BTTS 43.4%.
4. EVENTS. Referee TBD: 4.2 Y + 0.13 R/match
blended (weight 0.20) with WC base 2.6438 -> expected
cards 2.99, P(over 3.5) 35.0%; P(any red)
12.2%. Corners expected 7.5 (scale
0.964) -> P(over 8.5) 34.1%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.