WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
🇪🇸 Spain vs Saudi Arabia WINNER HIT
FIFA World Cup 2026, Group H, Matchday 3 · Neutral site (USA)
Kickoff Jun 21, 2026 · 16:00 UTC
Kickoff Jun 21, 2026 · 16:00 UTC
Final · Spain 4–0 Saudi Arabia
Goals: 10' Lamine Yamal (Spain); 21' Mikel Oyarzabal (Spain); 24' Mikel Oyarzabal (Spain); 49' Hassan Tambakti (Spain)
Actual stats: xG 2.85 – 0.14 · 7 corners · 2 cards (0 red)
Prediction vs result 5/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Spain | Spain (4-0) | HIT |
| Score | 1-0 | 4-0 | MISS |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 (51.5%) | 4 goals | MISS |
| BTTS | No (53.3%) | No | HIT |
| Corners | Over 8.5 (60.2%) | 7 corners | MISS |
| Cards | Under 3.5 (55.2%) | 2 cards | HIT |
| Red card | No (87.8%) | No | HIT |
| AH | Spain -1.00 | Full Win | HIT |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain win | 63.3% | 1.08 | 87.7% | -31.6% |
| Draw | 22.9% | 11.00 | 8.6% | +152.3% |
| Saudi Arabia win | 13.8% | 26.00 | 3.6% | +258.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.5% | 1.50 | 63.6% | -27.2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.5% | 2.62 | 36.4% | +35.1% |
| Both teams score: yes | 46.7% | 3.25 | 29.1% | +51.9% |
| Both teams score: no | 53.3% | 1.33 | 70.9% | -29.0% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 9.45) | 60.2% | — | — | — |
| Under 8.5 corners | 39.8% | — | — | — |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 3.43) | 44.8% | — | — | — |
| Under 3.5 cards | 55.2% | — | — | — |
| Any red card | 12.2% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals Spain 1.86 – 0.78 Saudi Arabia · fair Asian handicap Spain -1.00
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — Spain vs Saudi Arabia (FIFA World Cup 2026, Group H, Matchday 3)
Venue: Neutral site (USA)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
Spain: record WWWWDWDDWD, 2.50 GF / 0.40 GA,
xG 2.48 / xGA 0.45.
Saudi Arabia: record WLWLLLLWDD, 1.10 GF / 1.30 GA,
xG 0.65 / xGA 1.59.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. Spain atk 1.59 def 0.54; Saudi Arabia atk 0.78 def 0.97.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.0/1.0 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda Spain 1.86, Saudi Arabia 0.78
after 85% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'Spain': ['No major absences reported'], 'Saudi Arabia': ['No major absences reported']}.
Context: Group H MD3. Spain heavy favourites; Saudi a real AFC side. Expect the model to under-rate Spain (cold-on-elites bias). Neutral venue. MD3 rotation risk if group is decided.
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 Spain 63.3% /
draw 22.9% / Saudi Arabia 13.8%. Winner Spain; score 1-0; fair AH Spain -1.00.
Over 2.5 48.5%; BTTS 46.7%.
4. EVENTS. Referee TBD: 4.2 Y + 0.13 R/match
blended (weight 0.33) with WC base 2.9923 -> expected
cards 3.43, P(over 3.5) 44.8%; P(any red)
12.2%. Corners expected 9.4 (scale
0.9997) -> P(over 8.5) 60.2%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.