France vs England — WC2026 Tracker

WC2026 Model Tracker

Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment

🇫🇷 France vs England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 WINNER MISS

FIFA World Cup 2026, Third-place playoff · Neutral site (Hard Rock Stadium, Miami)
Kickoff Jul 18, 2026 · 21:00 UTC

Third-place playoff · who goes through

To advance: France 54.6% / England 45.4%

= P(win in 90′) + ½·P(draw); a level game at 90′ goes to extra time / penalties (treated as a coin flip). 1X2 and Asian handicap (France -0.25) below are the 90-minute markets.

Final (90′) · France 4–6 England

England advanced · model to-advance pick France 54.6% ADVANCE CALL MISS

Goals: 3' Declan Rice (England); 18' Ezri Konsa (England); 37' Bukayo Saka (England); 45' Bukayo Saka (England); 48' Kylian Mbappé (France); 54' Bradley Barcola (France); 66' Kylian Mbappé (France); 87' Bukayo Saka (England); 90' Jude Bellingham (England); 90' Ousmane Dembélé (France)

Actual stats: xG 2.88 – 2.88 · 7 corners · 0 cards (0 red)

Prediction vs result 3/8 markets hit

Market	Model called	Actual	Outcome
1X2	France	England (4-6)	MISS
Score	1-1	4-6	MISS
O/U 2.5	Under 2.5 (53.9%)	10 goals	MISS
BTTS	Yes (52.5%)	Yes	HIT
Corners	Over 8.5 (63.1%)	7 corners	MISS
Cards	Under 3.5 (65.0%)	0 cards	HIT
Red card	No (87.8%)	No	HIT
AH	France -0.25	Loss	MISS

Model vs market

Market	Model	Book odds	Book p*	EV
France win	40.5%	1.85	51.3%	-25.0%
Draw	28.2%	4.00	23.7%	+12.8%
England win	31.3%	3.80	25.0%	+18.8%
Over 2.5 goals	46.1%	1.44	65.6%	-33.4%
Under 2.5 goals	53.9%	2.75	34.4%	+48.2%
Both teams score: yes	52.5%	1.44	64.5%	-24.2%
Both teams score: no	47.5%	2.62	35.5%	+24.7%
Over 8.5 corners (exp 9.69)	63.1%	1.67	55.8%	+5.2%
Under 8.5 corners	36.9%	2.10	44.2%	-22.5%
Over 3.5 cards (exp 2.99)	35.0%	—	—	—
Under 3.5 cards	65.0%	—	—	—
Any red card	12.2%	—	—	—

Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals France 1.36 – 1.18 England · fair Asian handicap France -0.25

In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.

Model reasoning (chain of thought)

PREDICTION RATIONALE — France vs England  (FIFA World Cup 2026, Third-place playoff)
Venue: Neutral site (Hard Rock Stadium, Miami)

1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
   France: record WLWWWWWWWL, 2.30 GF / 0.80 GA,
   xG 2.06 / xGA 0.85.
   England: record LWWWDWWWWL, 1.80 GF / 0.90 GA,
   xG 1.78 / xGA 0.74.
   Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.

2. RATINGS. France atk 1.54 def 0.68; England atk 1.30 def 0.67.
   NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.0/1.0 (both teams
   travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
   from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda France 1.36, England 1.18
   after 90% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
   Injuries: {'France': ['No major absences reported'], 'England': ['No major absences reported']}.
   Context: Third-place playoff. KNOWN LIMITATION: the model has no third-place mode — these games historically run open and high-scoring (rotation, low stakes; last four WC editions all 3+ goals), and motivation is unmodelled. Treat the O/U lean with extra skepticism. France were held to 0.30 xG by Spain; England undone by two late Argentina goals. Knockout: a draw goes to ET/pens. Neutral venue.

3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 France 40.5% /
   draw 28.2% / England 31.3%. Winner France; score 1-1; fair AH France -0.25.
   Over 2.5 46.1%; BTTS 52.5%.

4. EVENTS. Referee TBD: 4.2 Y + 0.13 R/match
   blended (weight 0.20) with WC base 2.6438 -> expected
   cards 2.99, P(over 3.5) 35.0%; P(any red)
   12.2%. Corners expected 9.7 (scale
   0.964) -> P(over 8.5) 63.1%.

5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
   probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.