WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
🇫🇷 France vs Iraq WINNER HIT
FIFA World Cup 2026, Group I, Matchday 2 · Neutral site (USA)
Kickoff Jun 22, 2026 · 21:00 UTC
Kickoff Jun 22, 2026 · 21:00 UTC
Final · France 3–0 Iraq
Goals: 14' Kylian Mbappé (France); 54' Kylian Mbappé (France); 66' Ousmane Dembélé (France)
Actual stats: xG 2.67 – 0.63 · 6 corners · 1 cards (0 red)
Prediction vs result 7/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | France | France (3-0) | HIT |
| Score | 1-0 | 3-0 | MISS |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 (51.2%) | 3 goals | HIT |
| BTTS | No (50.5%) | No | HIT |
| Corners | Under 8.5 (51.8%) | 6 corners | HIT |
| Cards | Under 3.5 (57.9%) | 1 cards | HIT |
| Red card | No (87.8%) | No | HIT |
| AH | France -1.00 | Full Win | HIT |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| France win | 62.6% | 1.07 | 88.8% | -33.1% |
| Draw | 22.6% | 12.00 | 7.9% | +171.3% |
| Iraq win | 14.8% | 29.00 | 3.3% | +329.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.2% | 1.33 | 71.8% | -31.7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.8% | 3.40 | 28.2% | +65.9% |
| Both teams score: yes | 49.5% | 2.50 | 37.5% | +23.8% |
| Both teams score: no | 50.5% | 1.50 | 62.5% | -24.3% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 8.53) | 48.1% | — | — | — |
| Under 8.5 corners | 51.8% | — | — | — |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 3.3) | 42.1% | — | — | — |
| Under 3.5 cards | 57.9% | — | — | — |
| Any red card | 12.2% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals France 1.90 – 0.85 Iraq · fair Asian handicap France -1.00
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — France vs Iraq (FIFA World Cup 2026, Group I, Matchday 2)
Venue: Neutral site (USA)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
France: record WWDWWWWLWW, 2.60 GF / 1.00 GA,
xG 2.3 / xGA 0.73.
Iraq: record WWWLLWWDLL, 1.10 GF / 1.30 GA,
xG 0.43 / xGA 1.74.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. France atk 1.50 def 0.80; Iraq atk 0.68 def 1.07.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.0/1.0 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda France 1.90, Iraq 0.85
after 85% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'France': ['No major absences reported'], 'Iraq': ['No major absences reported']}.
Context: Group I. France heavy favourites; Iraq an AFC side. Expect the model to under-rate France (cold-on-elites). Neutral venue.
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 France 62.6% /
draw 22.6% / Iraq 14.8%. Winner France; score 1-0; fair AH France -1.00.
Over 2.5 51.2%; BTTS 49.5%.
4. EVENTS. Referee TBD: 4.2 Y + 0.13 R/match
blended (weight 0.28) with WC base 2.899 -> expected
cards 3.30, P(over 3.5) 42.1%; P(any red)
12.2%. Corners expected 8.5 (scale
0.9508) -> P(over 8.5) 48.1%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.