WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
🇫🇷 France vs Morocco 🇲🇦 WINNER HIT
FIFA World Cup 2026, Quarter-final · Neutral site (Gillette Stadium, Foxborough)
Kickoff Jul 09, 2026 · 20:00 UTC
Kickoff Jul 09, 2026 · 20:00 UTC
Quarter-final · who goes through
To advance: France 59.1% / Morocco 40.9%
= P(win in 90′) + ½·P(draw); a level game at 90′ goes to extra time / penalties (treated as a coin flip). 1X2 and Asian handicap (France -0.25) below are the 90-minute markets.
Final (90′) · France 2–0 Morocco
France advanced · model to-advance pick France 59.1% ADVANCE CALL HIT
Goals: 60' Kylian Mbappé (France); 66' Ousmane Dembélé (France)
Actual stats: xG 3.04 – 0.14 · 10 corners · 1 cards (0 red)
Prediction vs result 6/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | France | France (2-0) | HIT |
| Score | 1-1 | 2-0 | MISS |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 (51.0%) | 2 goals | HIT |
| BTTS | Yes (54.0%) | No | MISS |
| Corners | Over 8.5 (55.5%) | 10 corners | HIT |
| Cards | Under 3.5 (65.0%) | 1 cards | HIT |
| Red card | No (87.8%) | No | HIT |
| AH | France -0.25 | Full Win | HIT |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| France win | 45.7% | 1.60 | 59.3% | -26.9% |
| Draw | 26.9% | 3.80 | 24.9% | +2.3% |
| Morocco win | 27.4% | 6.00 | 15.8% | +64.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.9% | 2.00 | 47.4% | -2.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.0% | 1.80 | 52.6% | -8.1% |
| Both teams score: yes | 54.0% | 2.00 | 46.7% | +8.0% |
| Both teams score: no | 46.0% | 1.75 | 53.3% | -19.5% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 9.08) | 55.5% | — | — | — |
| Under 8.5 corners | 44.5% | — | — | — |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 2.99) | 35.0% | — | — | — |
| Under 3.5 cards | 65.0% | — | — | — |
| Any red card | 12.2% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals France 1.52 – 1.14 Morocco · fair Asian handicap France -0.25
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — France vs Morocco (FIFA World Cup 2026, Quarter-final)
Venue: Neutral site (Gillette Stadium, Foxborough)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
France: record WWWLWWWWWW, 2.60 GF / 0.80 GA,
xG 1.96 / xGA 0.87.
Morocco: record DWWWDDWWWW, 2.60 GF / 0.90 GA,
xG 1.69 / xGA 0.73.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. France atk 1.50 def 0.74; Morocco atk 1.26 def 0.76.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.0/1.0 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda France 1.52, Morocco 1.14
after 90% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'France': ['No major absences reported'], 'Morocco': ['No major absences reported']}.
Context: Quarter-final; 2022 semi rematch. France favoured but Morocco are the tournament's best defensive side and just dismantled Canada 3-0. First prediction on the recalibrated settings (tau 0.4, shrink 1.3). Knockout: a draw goes to ET/pens. Neutral venue.
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 France 45.7% /
draw 26.9% / Morocco 27.4%. Winner France; score 1-1; fair AH France -0.25.
Over 2.5 48.9%; BTTS 54.0%.
4. EVENTS. Referee TBD: 4.2 Y + 0.13 R/match
blended (weight 0.20) with WC base 2.6438 -> expected
cards 2.99, P(over 3.5) 35.0%; P(any red)
12.2%. Corners expected 9.1 (scale
0.964) -> P(over 8.5) 55.5%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.