WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
🇫🇷 France vs Senegal 🇸🇳 WINNER HIT
FIFA World Cup 2026, Group I, Matchday 1 · MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford NJ (sea level, neutral site)
Kickoff Jun 16, 2026 · 19:00 UTC
Kickoff Jun 16, 2026 · 19:00 UTC
Final · France 3–1 Senegal
Goals: 66' Kylian Mbappé (France); 82' Bradley Barcola (France); 90' Kylian Mbappé (France); 90' Ibrahim Mbaye (Senegal)
Actual stats: xG 1.79 – 0.53 · 10 corners · 0 cards (0 red)
Prediction vs result 6/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | France | France (3-1) | HIT |
| Score | 1-1 | 3-1 | MISS |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 (51.2%) | 4 goals | MISS |
| BTTS | Yes (53.9%) | Yes | HIT |
| Corners | Over 8.5 (55.0%) | 10 corners | HIT |
| Cards | Under 3.5 (51.7%) | 0 cards | HIT |
| Red card | No (89.1%) | No | HIT |
| AH | France -0.25 | Full Win | HIT |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| France win | 45.7% | 1.44 | 65.5% | -34.2% |
| Draw | 27.0% | 4.50 | 21.0% | +21.3% |
| Senegal win | 27.3% | 7.00 | 13.5% | +91.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.8% | 1.91 | 50.0% | -6.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.2% | 1.91 | 50.0% | -2.3% |
| Both teams score: yes | 53.9% | 2.00 | 46.7% | +7.8% |
| Both teams score: no | 46.1% | 1.75 | 53.3% | -19.3% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 9.04) | 55.0% | — | — | — |
| Under 8.5 corners | 45.0% | — | — | — |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 3.59) | 48.3% | 2.00 | 46.3% | -3.4% |
| Under 3.5 cards | 51.7% | 1.73 | 53.7% | -10.7% |
| Any red card | 10.9% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals France 1.52 – 1.14 Senegal · fair Asian handicap France -0.25
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — France vs Senegal (FIFA World Cup 2026, Group I, Matchday 1)
Venue: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford NJ (sea level, neutral site)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
France: record WWWDWWWWLW, 2.50 GF / 0.90 GA,
xG 2.34 / xGA 0.86.
Senegal: record DWWWWLWWLD, 1.60 GF / 0.90 GA,
xG 2.29 / xGA 1.27.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. France atk 1.49 def 0.82; Senegal atk 1.02 def 0.82.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.0/1.0 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda France 1.52, Senegal 1.14
after 85% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'France': ['No major absences reported'], 'Senegal': ['No major absences reported']}.
Context: Marquee Group I clash. France elite; Senegal a strong AFCON-calibre side. Competitive, both well-covered. Neutral venue.
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 France 45.7% /
draw 27.0% / Senegal 27.3%. Winner France; score 1-1; fair AH France -0.25.
Over 2.5 48.8%; BTTS 53.9%.
4. EVENTS. Referee Alireza Faghani (Australia): 3.6 Y + 0.1 R/match
blended (weight 0.41) with WC base 3.5147 -> expected
cards 3.59, P(over 3.5) 48.3%; P(any red)
10.9%. Corners expected 9.0 (scale
1.0259) -> P(over 8.5) 55.0%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.