WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
🇫🇷 France vs Spain 🇪🇸 WINNER HIT
FIFA World Cup 2026, Semi-final · Neutral site (AT&T Stadium, Arlington)
Kickoff Jul 14, 2026 · 19:00 UTC
Kickoff Jul 14, 2026 · 19:00 UTC
Semi-final · who goes through
To advance: France 45.9% / Spain 54.1%
= P(win in 90′) + ½·P(draw); a level game at 90′ goes to extra time / penalties (treated as a coin flip). 1X2 and Asian handicap (France +0.25) below are the 90-minute markets.
Final (90′) · France 0–2 Spain
Spain advanced · model to-advance pick Spain 54.1% ADVANCE CALL HIT
Goals: 22' Mikel Oyarzabal (Spain); 58' Pedro Porro (Spain)
Actual stats: xG 0.3 – 1.63 · 8 corners · 3 cards (0 red)
Prediction vs result 5/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Spain | Spain (0-2) | HIT |
| Score | 1-1 | 0-2 | MISS |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 (58.8%) | 2 goals | HIT |
| BTTS | No (51.3%) | No | HIT |
| Corners | Over 8.5 (51.4%) | 8 corners | MISS |
| Cards | Under 3.5 (65.0%) | 3 cards | HIT |
| Red card | No (87.8%) | No | HIT |
| AH | France +0.25 | Loss | MISS |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| France win | 31.0% | 2.35 | 40.7% | -27.2% |
| Draw | 29.8% | 3.25 | 29.4% | -3.2% |
| Spain win | 39.2% | 3.20 | 29.9% | +25.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.2% | 1.91 | 50.0% | -21.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 58.8% | 1.91 | 50.0% | +12.3% |
| Both teams score: yes | 48.6% | 1.67 | 55.8% | -18.9% |
| Both teams score: no | 51.3% | 2.10 | 44.2% | +7.8% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 8.77) | 51.4% | — | — | — |
| Under 8.5 corners | 48.6% | — | — | — |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 2.99) | 35.0% | 2.00 | 46.3% | -29.9% |
| Under 3.5 cards | 65.0% | 1.73 | 53.7% | +12.2% |
| Any red card | 12.2% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals France 1.09 – 1.25 Spain · fair Asian handicap France +0.25
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — France vs Spain (FIFA World Cup 2026, Semi-final)
Venue: Neutral site (AT&T Stadium, Arlington)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
France: record WWLWWWWWWW, 2.50 GF / 0.70 GA,
xG 2.13 / xGA 0.84.
Spain: record WDDWDWWWWW, 1.80 GF / 0.30 GA,
xG 1.84 / xGA 0.34.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. France atk 1.63 def 0.67; Spain atk 1.33 def 0.46.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.0/1.0 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda France 1.09, Spain 1.25
after 90% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'France': ['No major absences reported'], 'Spain': ['No major absences reported']}.
Context: Semi-final. The two most dominant sides in the tournament: France (3.04 xG vs Morocco) vs Spain (beat the model's lambda in all four predicted games; tier prior bumped 1.35->1.42 pre-match, documented). Elite-vs-elite, tiers nearly cancel. Knockout: a draw goes to ET/pens. Neutral venue.
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 France 31.0% /
draw 29.8% / Spain 39.2%. Winner Spain; score 1-1; fair AH France +0.25.
Over 2.5 41.2%; BTTS 48.6%.
4. EVENTS. Referee TBD: 4.2 Y + 0.13 R/match
blended (weight 0.20) with WC base 2.6438 -> expected
cards 2.99, P(over 3.5) 35.0%; P(any red)
12.2%. Corners expected 8.8 (scale
0.964) -> P(over 8.5) 51.4%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.