WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
🇫🇷 France vs Sweden 🇸🇪 WINNER HIT
FIFA World Cup 2026, Round of 32 · Neutral site (MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford)
Kickoff Jun 30, 2026 · 21:00 UTC
Kickoff Jun 30, 2026 · 21:00 UTC
Round of 32 · who goes through
To advance: France 75.8% / Sweden 24.2%
= P(win in 90′) + ½·P(draw); a level game at 90′ goes to extra time / penalties (treated as a coin flip). 1X2 and Asian handicap (France -1.25) below are the 90-minute markets.
Final (90′) · France 3–0 Sweden
France advanced · model to-advance pick France 75.8% ADVANCE CALL HIT
Goals: 45' Kylian Mbappé (France); 53' Bradley Barcola (France); 74' Kylian Mbappé (France)
Actual stats: xG 3.24 – 0.7 · 10 corners · 0 cards (0 red)
Prediction vs result 5/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | France | France (3-0) | HIT |
| Score | 2-1 | 3-0 | MISS |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 (69.2%) | 3 goals | HIT |
| BTTS | Yes (63.0%) | No | MISS |
| Corners | Under 8.5 (51.9%) | 10 corners | MISS |
| Cards | Under 3.5 (65.0%) | 0 cards | HIT |
| Red card | No (87.8%) | No | HIT |
| AH | France -1.25 | Full Win | HIT |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| France win | 66.7% | 1.27 | 75.4% | -15.3% |
| Draw | 18.2% | 6.00 | 15.9% | +9.2% |
| Sweden win | 15.1% | 11.00 | 8.7% | +65.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.2% | 1.44 | 65.6% | -0.0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 30.8% | 2.75 | 34.4% | -15.4% |
| Both teams score: yes | 63.0% | 1.91 | 50.0% | +20.2% |
| Both teams score: no | 37.0% | 1.91 | 50.0% | -29.3% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 8.53) | 48.1% | — | — | — |
| Under 8.5 corners | 51.9% | — | — | — |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 2.99) | 35.0% | — | — | — |
| Under 3.5 cards | 65.0% | — | — | — |
| Any red card | 12.2% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals France 2.47 – 1.15 Sweden · fair Asian handicap France -1.25
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — France vs Sweden (FIFA World Cup 2026, Round of 32)
Venue: Neutral site (MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
France: record DWWWWLWWWW, 2.80 GF / 1.00 GA,
xG 2.01 / xGA 0.87.
Sweden: record LLDWWLDWLD, 1.80 GF / 2.10 GA,
xG 1.28 / xGA 1.79.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. France atk 1.56 def 0.80; Sweden atk 1.15 def 1.25.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.0/1.0 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda France 2.47, Sweden 1.15
after 90% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'France': ['No major absences reported'], 'Sweden': ['No major absences reported']}.
Context: Round of 32. France heavy favourites vs Sweden. Expect the model to under-rate France (cold-on-elites). Knockout: a draw goes to ET/pens. Neutral venue.
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 France 66.7% /
draw 18.2% / Sweden 15.1%. Winner France; score 2-1; fair AH France -1.25.
Over 2.5 69.2%; BTTS 63.0%.
4. EVENTS. Referee TBD: 4.2 Y + 0.13 R/match
blended (weight 0.20) with WC base 2.6438 -> expected
cards 2.99, P(over 3.5) 35.0%; P(any red)
12.2%. Corners expected 8.5 (scale
0.964) -> P(over 8.5) 48.1%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.