WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
Germany vs Côte d'Ivoire 🇨🇮 WINNER HIT
FIFA World Cup 2026, Group E, Matchday 3 · Neutral site (USA)
Kickoff Jun 20, 2026 · 20:00 UTC
Kickoff Jun 20, 2026 · 20:00 UTC
Final · Germany 2–1 Côte d'Ivoire
Goals: 30' Franck Kessié (Côte d'Ivoire); 68' Deniz Undav (Germany); 90' Deniz Undav (Germany)
Actual stats: xG 1.89 – 1.22 · 11 corners · 0 cards (0 red)
Prediction vs result 7/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Germany | Germany (2-1) | HIT |
| Score | 1-1 | 2-1 | MISS |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 (54.2%) | 3 goals | HIT |
| BTTS | Yes (57.7%) | Yes | HIT |
| Corners | Over 8.5 (67.3%) | 11 corners | HIT |
| Cards | Under 3.5 (55.2%) | 0 cards | HIT |
| Red card | No (87.8%) | No | HIT |
| AH | Germany -0.50 | Full Win | HIT |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany win | 48.0% | 1.50 | 63.4% | -28.0% |
| Draw | 25.3% | 4.75 | 20.0% | +20.3% |
| Côte d'Ivoire win | 26.7% | 5.75 | 16.5% | +53.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.2% | 1.57 | 60.2% | -14.9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.8% | 2.38 | 39.8% | +8.8% |
| Both teams score: yes | 57.7% | 1.70 | 54.7% | -1.9% |
| Both teams score: no | 42.3% | 2.05 | 45.3% | -13.3% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 10.05) | 67.3% | — | — | — |
| Under 8.5 corners | 32.7% | — | — | — |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 3.43) | 44.8% | — | — | — |
| Under 3.5 cards | 55.2% | — | — | — |
| Any red card | 12.2% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals Germany 1.67 – 1.21 Côte d'Ivoire · fair Asian handicap Germany -0.50
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — Germany vs Côte d'Ivoire (FIFA World Cup 2026, Group E, Matchday 3)
Venue: Neutral site (USA)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
Germany: record WWWWWWWWWW, 3.50 GF / 0.70 GA,
xG 2.56 / xGA 0.67.
Côte d'Ivoire: record WWDWWLWWWW, 2.00 GF / 0.70 GA,
xG 1.92 / xGA 1.15.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. Germany atk 1.66 def 0.73; Côte d'Ivoire atk 1.29 def 0.84.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.0/1.0 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda Germany 1.67, Côte d'Ivoire 1.21
after 85% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'Germany': ['No major absences reported'], 'Ivory Coast': ['No major absences reported']}.
Context: Group E MD3. Germany favoured; Ivory Coast a real CAF side. Neutral venue. MD3 rotation risk if group is decided.
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 Germany 48.0% /
draw 25.3% / Côte d'Ivoire 26.7%. Winner Germany; score 1-1; fair AH Germany -0.50.
Over 2.5 54.2%; BTTS 57.7%.
4. EVENTS. Referee TBD: 4.2 Y + 0.13 R/match
blended (weight 0.33) with WC base 2.9923 -> expected
cards 3.43, P(over 3.5) 44.8%; P(any red)
12.2%. Corners expected 10.1 (scale
0.9997) -> P(over 8.5) 67.3%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.