WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
🇬🇭 Ghana vs Panama WINNER HIT
FIFA World Cup 2026, Group L, Matchday 1 · Neutral site (USA)
Kickoff Jun 17, 2026 · 23:00 UTC
Kickoff Jun 17, 2026 · 23:00 UTC
Final · Ghana 1–0 Panama
Goals: 90' Caleb Yirenkyi (Ghana)
Actual stats: xG 1.31 – 0.73 · 4 corners · 3 cards (0 red)
Prediction vs result 6/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ghana | Ghana (1-0) | HIT |
| Score | 1-1 | 1-0 | MISS |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 (51.7%) | 1 goals | HIT |
| BTTS | Yes (54.2%) | No | MISS |
| Corners | Under 8.5 (63.0%) | 4 corners | HIT |
| Cards | Under 3.5 (54.2%) | 3 cards | HIT |
| Red card | No (89.1%) | No | HIT |
| AH | Ghana -0.25 | Full Win | HIT |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ghana win | 40.7% | 2.30 | 41.2% | -6.3% |
| Draw | 27.6% | 3.20 | 29.6% | -11.7% |
| Panama win | 31.7% | 3.25 | 29.2% | +3.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.3% | 2.38 | 39.8% | +14.6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.7% | 1.57 | 60.2% | -18.7% |
| Both teams score: yes | 54.2% | 2.00 | 46.7% | +8.4% |
| Both teams score: no | 45.8% | 1.75 | 53.3% | -19.9% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 7.73) | 37.0% | 1.83 | 50.0% | -32.1% |
| Under 8.5 corners | 63.0% | 1.83 | 50.0% | +15.5% |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 3.48) | 45.8% | 2.20 | 42.3% | +0.8% |
| Under 3.5 cards | 54.2% | 1.62 | 57.7% | -12.5% |
| Any red card | 10.9% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals Ghana 1.41 – 1.22 Panama · fair Asian handicap Ghana -0.25
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — Ghana vs Panama (FIFA World Cup 2026, Group L, Matchday 1)
Venue: Neutral site (USA)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
Ghana: record DWWWLLLLLD, 1.10 GF / 1.40 GA,
xG 1.01 / xGA 1.8.
Panama: record DWWDLDWLWD, 1.80 GF / 1.60 GA,
xG 0.67 / xGA 1.63.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. Ghana atk 0.91 def 0.95; Panama atk 1.02 def 1.17.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.0/1.0 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda Ghana 1.41, Panama 1.22
after 85% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'Ghana': ['No major absences reported'], 'Panama': ['No major absences reported']}.
Context: Evenly matched Group L sides. Ghana (CAF) vs Panama (CONCACAF); both have patchy xG coverage. Neutral venue.
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 Ghana 40.7% /
draw 27.6% / Panama 31.7%. Winner Ghana; score 1-1; fair AH Ghana -0.25.
Over 2.5 48.3%; BTTS 54.2%.
4. EVENTS. Referee Glenn Nyberg (Sweden): 3.7 Y + 0.1 R/match
blended (weight 0.35) with WC base 3.3054 -> expected
cards 3.48, P(over 3.5) 45.8%; P(any red)
10.9%. Corners expected 7.7 (scale
0.9827) -> P(over 8.5) 37.0%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.