WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results ยท a live, honest experiment
๐ญ๐น Haiti vs Scotland ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟ WINNER HIT
FIFA World Cup 2026, Group C, Matchday 1 ยท Gillette Stadium, Foxborough MA (sea level, neutral site)
Kickoff Jun 14, 2026 ยท 01:00 UTC
Kickoff Jun 14, 2026 ยท 01:00 UTC
Final ยท Haiti 0โ1 Scotland
Goals: 28' John McGinn (Scotland)
Actual stats: xG 1.05 โ 1.05 ยท 7 corners ยท 4 cards (0 red)
Prediction vs result 3/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Scotland | Scotland (0-1) | HIT |
| Score | 1-1 | 0-1 | MISS |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 (50.3%) | 1 goals | MISS |
| BTTS | Yes (54.1%) | No | MISS |
| Corners | Over 8.5 (68.4%) | 7 corners | MISS |
| Cards | Over 3.5 (52.1%) | 4 cards | HIT |
| Red card | No (88.2%) | No | HIT |
| AH | Haiti +0.50 | Loss | MISS |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haiti win | 24.3% | 5.50 | 17.2% | +33.5% |
| Draw | 26.0% | 4.33 | 21.8% | +12.5% |
| Scotland win | 49.8% | 1.55 | 61.0% | -22.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.3% | 1.67 | 56.9% | -16.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.7% | 2.20 | 43.1% | +9.3% |
| Both teams score: yes | 54.1% | 1.80 | 52.0% | -2.5% |
| Both teams score: no | 45.9% | 1.95 | 48.0% | -10.6% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 10.15) | 68.4% | โ | โ | โ |
| Under 8.5 corners | 31.6% | โ | โ | โ |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 3.77) | 52.1% | 1.67 | 55.8% | -13.2% |
| Under 3.5 cards | 47.9% | 2.10 | 44.2% | +0.7% |
| Any red card | 11.8% | โ | โ | โ |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals Haiti 1.09 โ 1.63 Scotland ยท fair Asian handicap Haiti +0.50
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). โโโ = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE โ Haiti vs Scotland (FIFA World Cup 2026, Group C, Matchday 1)
Venue: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough MA (sea level, neutral site)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
Haiti: record DDWLWWLDWL, 1.50 GF / 1.00 GA,
xG 1.73 / xGA 1.06.
Scotland: record DWWWLWLLWW, 2.10 GF / 1.00 GA,
xG 1.64 / xGA 1.53.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. Haiti atk 0.75 def 1.12; Scotland atk 1.16 def 1.08.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.0/1.0 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies โ a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda Haiti 1.09, Scotland 1.63
after 85% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'Haiti': ['Squad-depth limited; thin xG data sample'], 'Scotland': ['No major absences reported']}.
Context: Scotland favourites vs World Cup debutants Haiti. Note: Haiti's Sofascore xG coverage is sparse (CONCACAF/friendly fixtures), so their rating leans on goals โ lower confidence.
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 Haiti 24.3% /
draw 26.0% / Scotland 49.8%. Winner Scotland; score 1-1; fair AH Haiti +0.50.
Over 2.5 50.3%; BTTS 54.1%.
4. EVENTS. Referee Mustapha Ghorbal (Algeria): 3.87 Y + 0.12 R/match
blended (weight 0.50) with WC base 3.55 -> expected
cards 3.77, P(over 3.5) 52.1%; P(any red)
11.8%. Corners expected 10.2 (scale
0.9952) -> P(over 8.5) 68.4%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.