WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
Iraq vs Norway 🇳🇴 WINNER HIT
FIFA World Cup 2026, Group I, Matchday 1 · Gillette Stadium, Foxborough MA (sea level, neutral site)
Kickoff Jun 16, 2026 · 22:00 UTC
Kickoff Jun 16, 2026 · 22:00 UTC
Final · Iraq 1–4 Norway
Goals: 29' Erling Haaland (Norway); 39' Aymen Hussein (Iraq); 43' Erling Haaland (Norway); 76' Leo Østigård (Norway); 90' Aymen Hussein (Norway)
Actual stats: xG 0.8 – 2.52 · 7 corners · 1 cards (0 red)
Prediction vs result 3/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Norway | Norway (1-4) | HIT |
| Score | 0-1 | 1-4 | MISS |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 (51.1%) | 5 goals | HIT |
| BTTS | No (51.7%) | Yes | MISS |
| Corners | Over 8.5 (61.2%) | 7 corners | MISS |
| Cards | Over 3.5 (50.3%) | 1 cards | MISS |
| Red card | No (87.8%) | No | HIT |
| AH | Iraq +1.00 | Loss | MISS |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iraq win | 13.5% | 11.00 | 8.5% | +48.0% |
| Draw | 22.0% | 7.00 | 13.4% | +53.8% |
| Norway win | 64.6% | 1.20 | 78.1% | -22.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.1% | 1.57 | 60.2% | -19.7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.9% | 2.38 | 39.8% | +16.1% |
| Both teams score: yes | 48.3% | 2.25 | 41.1% | +8.6% |
| Both teams score: no | 51.7% | 1.57 | 58.9% | -18.7% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 9.53) | 61.2% | 1.83 | 50.0% | +12.1% |
| Under 8.5 corners | 38.8% | 1.83 | 50.0% | -28.8% |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 3.69) | 50.3% | 2.20 | 42.3% | +10.6% |
| Under 3.5 cards | 49.7% | 1.62 | 57.7% | -19.7% |
| Any red card | 12.2% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals Iraq 0.81 – 1.94 Norway · fair Asian handicap Iraq +1.00
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — Iraq vs Norway (FIFA World Cup 2026, Group I, Matchday 1)
Venue: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough MA (sea level, neutral site)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
Iraq: record DWWWLLWWDL, 1.10 GF / 1.00 GA,
xG 0.05 / xGA 0.96.
Norway: record WWWDWWLDWD, 3.10 GF / 0.80 GA,
xG 2.4 / xGA 0.8.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. Iraq atk 0.66 def 0.99; Norway atk 1.66 def 0.75.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.0/1.0 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda Iraq 0.81, Norway 1.94
after 85% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'Iraq': ['No major absences reported'], 'Norway': ['No major absences reported']}.
Context: Norway (Haaland) favoured; Iraq a competitive AFC side on their WC return. Neutral venue. Iraq's AFC slate has patchy xG.
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 Iraq 13.5% /
draw 22.0% / Norway 64.6%. Winner Norway; score 0-1; fair AH Iraq +1.00.
Over 2.5 51.1%; BTTS 48.3%.
4. EVENTS. Referee Pierre Atcho (Gabon): 3.8 Y + 0.13 R/match
blended (weight 0.41) with WC base 3.5147 -> expected
cards 3.69, P(over 3.5) 50.3%; P(any red)
12.2%. Corners expected 9.5 (scale
1.0259) -> P(over 8.5) 61.2%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.