WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
Jordan vs Algeria 🇩🇿 WINNER HIT
FIFA World Cup 2026, Group J, Matchday 2 · Neutral site (USA)
Kickoff Jun 23, 2026 · 03:00 UTC
Kickoff Jun 23, 2026 · 03:00 UTC
Final · Jordan 1–2 Algeria
Goals: 36' Nizar Al-Rashdan (Jordan); 69' Ahmed Nadhir Benbouali (Algeria); 82' Amine Gouiri (Algeria)
Actual stats: xG 0.65 – 1.81 · 11 corners · 2 cards (0 red)
Prediction vs result 5/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Algeria | Algeria (1-2) | HIT |
| Score | 1-1 | 1-2 | MISS |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 (52.4%) | 3 goals | MISS |
| BTTS | Yes (52.3%) | Yes | HIT |
| Corners | Over 8.5 (51.7%) | 11 corners | HIT |
| Cards | Under 3.5 (57.9%) | 2 cards | HIT |
| Red card | No (87.8%) | No | HIT |
| AH | Jordan +0.50 | Loss | MISS |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan win | 24.9% | 6.25 | 15.1% | +55.6% |
| Draw | 26.9% | 4.33 | 21.8% | +16.6% |
| Algeria win | 48.2% | 1.50 | 63.0% | -27.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.6% | 1.91 | 50.0% | -9.2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.4% | 1.91 | 50.0% | +0.1% |
| Both teams score: yes | 52.3% | 2.05 | 45.3% | +7.2% |
| Both teams score: no | 47.7% | 1.70 | 54.7% | -18.9% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 8.79) | 51.7% | 1.83 | 50.0% | -5.2% |
| Under 8.5 corners | 48.3% | 1.83 | 50.0% | -11.4% |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 3.3) | 42.1% | — | — | — |
| Under 3.5 cards | 57.9% | — | — | — |
| Any red card | 12.2% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals Jordan 1.06 – 1.54 Algeria · fair Asian handicap Jordan +0.50
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — Jordan vs Algeria (FIFA World Cup 2026, Group J, Matchday 2)
Venue: Neutral site (USA)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
Jordan: record WWWWLDDLLL, 1.60 GF / 1.70 GA,
xG 0.87 / xGA 2.37.
Algeria: record WWWWLWDWWL, 2.00 GF / 0.60 GA,
xG 1.94 / xGA 1.06.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. Jordan atk 1.12 def 1.15; Algeria atk 1.08 def 0.67.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.0/1.0 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda Jordan 1.06, Algeria 1.54
after 85% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'Jordan': ['No major absences reported'], 'Algeria': ['No major absences reported']}.
Context: Group J. Algeria favoured but not dominant; Jordan a capable AFC side. Competitive. Neutral venue.
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 Jordan 24.9% /
draw 26.9% / Algeria 48.2%. Winner Algeria; score 1-1; fair AH Jordan +0.50.
Over 2.5 47.6%; BTTS 52.3%.
4. EVENTS. Referee TBD: 4.2 Y + 0.13 R/match
blended (weight 0.28) with WC base 2.899 -> expected
cards 3.30, P(over 3.5) 42.1%; P(any red)
12.2%. Corners expected 8.8 (scale
0.9508) -> P(over 8.5) 51.7%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.