WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
Japan vs Sweden 🇸🇪 WINNER MISS
FIFA World Cup 2026, Group F, Matchday 3 · Neutral site (AT&T Stadium, Arlington)
Kickoff Jun 25, 2026 · 23:00 UTC
Kickoff Jun 25, 2026 · 23:00 UTC
Final · Japan 1–1 Sweden
Goals: 56' Daizen Maeda (Japan); 62' Anthony Elanga (Sweden)
Actual stats: xG 1.21 – 0.64 · 10 corners · 3 cards (0 red)
Prediction vs result 3/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Japan | Draw (1-1) | MISS |
| Score | 2-1 | 1-1 | MISS |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 (61.5%) | 2 goals | MISS |
| BTTS | Yes (58.9%) | Yes | HIT |
| Corners | Under 8.5 (52.1%) | 10 corners | MISS |
| Cards | Under 3.5 (63.2%) | 3 cards | HIT |
| Red card | No (87.8%) | No | HIT |
| AH | Japan -1.00 | Loss | MISS |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Japan win | 61.5% | 1.95 | 48.8% | +19.9% |
| Draw | 21.0% | 3.40 | 28.0% | -28.6% |
| Sweden win | 17.5% | 4.10 | 23.2% | -28.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.5% | 1.91 | 50.0% | +17.3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.5% | 1.91 | 50.0% | -26.4% |
| Both teams score: yes | 58.9% | 1.70 | 54.7% | +0.2% |
| Both teams score: no | 41.1% | 2.05 | 45.3% | -15.8% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 8.51) | 47.9% | — | — | — |
| Under 8.5 corners | 52.1% | — | — | — |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 3.07) | 36.8% | — | — | — |
| Under 3.5 cards | 63.2% | — | — | — |
| Any red card | 12.2% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals Japan 2.13 – 1.09 Sweden · fair Asian handicap Japan -1.00
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — Japan vs Sweden (FIFA World Cup 2026, Group F, Matchday 3)
Venue: Neutral site (AT&T Stadium, Arlington)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
Japan: record LDWWWWWWDW, 1.90 GF / 0.80 GA,
xG 1.51 / xGA 1.32.
Sweden: record LLLDWWLDWL, 1.70 GF / 2.20 GA,
xG 1.35 / xGA 1.93.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. Japan atk 1.27 def 0.75; Sweden atk 1.15 def 1.31.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.0/1.0 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda Japan 2.13, Sweden 1.09
after 90% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'Japan': ['No major absences reported'], 'Sweden': ['No major absences reported']}.
Context: Group F MD3. Roughly even: Japan (quick, technical) vs Sweden. Both likely fighting for a knockout spot. Neutral venue.
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 Japan 61.5% /
draw 21.0% / Sweden 17.5%. Winner Japan; score 2-1; fair AH Japan -1.00.
Over 2.5 61.5%; BTTS 58.9%.
4. EVENTS. Referee TBD: 4.2 Y + 0.13 R/match
blended (weight 0.22) with WC base 2.7044 -> expected
cards 3.07, P(over 3.5) 36.8%; P(any red)
12.2%. Corners expected 8.5 (scale
0.9899) -> P(over 8.5) 47.9%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.