WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
🇲🇦 Morocco vs Haiti 🇭🇹 WINNER HIT
FIFA World Cup 2026, Group C, Matchday 3 · Neutral site (Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta)
Kickoff Jun 24, 2026 · 22:00 UTC
Kickoff Jun 24, 2026 · 22:00 UTC
Final · Morocco 4–2 Haiti
Goals: 10' Yassine Bounou (Haiti); 39' Achraf Hakimi (Morocco); 43' Wilson Isidor (Haiti); 45' Ismael Saibari (Morocco); 78' Soufiane Rahimi (Morocco); 89' Gessime Yassine (Morocco)
Actual stats: xG 3.76 – 0.67 · 10 corners · 3 cards (0 red)
Prediction vs result 4/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Morocco | Morocco (4-2) | HIT |
| Score | 1-0 | 4-2 | MISS |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 (56.1%) | 6 goals | MISS |
| BTTS | No (59.1%) | Yes | MISS |
| Corners | Under 8.5 (61.8%) | 10 corners | MISS |
| Cards | Under 3.5 (61.3%) | 3 cards | HIT |
| Red card | No (87.8%) | No | HIT |
| AH | Morocco -1.00 | Full Win | HIT |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morocco win | 65.8% | 1.17 | 81.0% | -23.0% |
| Draw | 23.0% | 7.50 | 12.6% | +72.7% |
| Haiti win | 11.1% | 15.00 | 6.3% | +67.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.9% | 1.57 | 60.2% | -31.0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 56.1% | 2.38 | 39.8% | +33.1% |
| Both teams score: yes | 40.9% | 2.50 | 37.5% | +2.3% |
| Both teams score: no | 59.1% | 1.50 | 62.5% | -11.4% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 7.82) | 38.2% | — | — | — |
| Under 8.5 corners | 61.8% | — | — | — |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 3.15) | 38.7% | — | — | — |
| Under 3.5 cards | 61.3% | — | — | — |
| Any red card | 12.2% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals Morocco 1.81 – 0.65 Haiti · fair Asian handicap Morocco -1.00
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — Morocco vs Haiti (FIFA World Cup 2026, Group C, Matchday 3)
Venue: Neutral site (Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
Morocco: record WWWDWWWDDW, 2.40 GF / 0.60 GA,
xG 1.54 / xGA 0.72.
Haiti: record WLWWLDWLLL, 1.20 GF / 1.10 GA,
xG 1.28 / xGA 1.19.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. Morocco atk 1.38 def 0.65; Haiti atk 0.68 def 1.04.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.0/1.0 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda Morocco 1.81, Haiti 0.65
after 90% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'Morocco': ['No major absences reported'], 'Haiti': ['No major absences reported']}.
Context: Group C MD3. Morocco heavy favourites vs Haiti (lost 3-0 to Brazil). Expect the model to under-rate Morocco (cold-on-elites). MD3 rotation risk for Morocco. Neutral venue.
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 Morocco 65.8% /
draw 23.0% / Haiti 11.1%. Winner Morocco; score 1-0; fair AH Morocco -1.00.
Over 2.5 43.9%; BTTS 40.9%.
4. EVENTS. Referee TBD: 4.2 Y + 0.13 R/match
blended (weight 0.24) with WC base 2.7763 -> expected
cards 3.15, P(over 3.5) 38.7%; P(any red)
12.2%. Corners expected 7.8 (scale
0.9451) -> P(over 8.5) 38.2%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.