WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
🇲🇽 Mexico vs Ecuador 🇪🇨 WINNER HIT
FIFA World Cup 2026, Round of 32 · Estadio Azteca, Mexico City (Mexico host)
Kickoff Jul 01, 2026 · 01:00 UTC
Kickoff Jul 01, 2026 · 01:00 UTC
Round of 32 · who goes through
To advance: Mexico 66.6% / Ecuador 33.4%
= P(win in 90′) + ½·P(draw); a level game at 90′ goes to extra time / penalties (treated as a coin flip). 1X2 and Asian handicap (Mexico -0.50) below are the 90-minute markets.
Final (90′) · Mexico 2–0 Ecuador
Mexico advanced · model to-advance pick Mexico 66.6% ADVANCE CALL HIT
Goals: 22' Julián Quiñones (Mexico); 31' Raúl Jiménez (Mexico)
Actual stats: xG 1.02 – 0.73 · 11 corners · 4 cards (1 red)
Prediction vs result 4/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mexico | Mexico (2-0) | HIT |
| Score | 1-0 | 2-0 | MISS |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 (73.4%) | 2 goals | HIT |
| BTTS | No (66.9%) | No | HIT |
| Corners | Under 8.5 (76.1%) | 11 corners | MISS |
| Cards | Under 3.5 (65.0%) | 4 cards | MISS |
| Red card | No (87.8%) | Yes | MISS |
| AH | Mexico -0.50 | Full Win | HIT |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico win | 49.6% | 2.20 | 43.1% | +9.2% |
| Draw | 34.0% | 2.90 | 32.7% | -1.5% |
| Ecuador win | 16.4% | 3.90 | 24.3% | -36.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 26.6% | 3.00 | 31.8% | -20.3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 73.4% | 1.40 | 68.2% | +2.8% |
| Both teams score: yes | 33.1% | 2.25 | 41.1% | -25.5% |
| Both teams score: no | 66.9% | 1.57 | 58.9% | +5.1% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 6.75) | 23.9% | — | — | — |
| Under 8.5 corners | 76.1% | — | — | — |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 2.99) | 35.0% | 1.73 | 53.7% | -39.5% |
| Under 3.5 cards | 65.0% | 2.00 | 46.3% | +29.9% |
| Any red card | 12.2% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals Mexico 1.18 – 0.59 Ecuador · fair Asian handicap Mexico -0.50
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — Mexico vs Ecuador (FIFA World Cup 2026, Round of 32)
Venue: Estadio Azteca, Mexico City (Mexico host)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
Mexico: record WWDDWWWWWW, 2.00 GF / 0.20 GA,
xG 1.28 / xGA 0.55.
Ecuador: record DDWDDWWLDW, 1.20 GF / 0.60 GA,
xG 1.57 / xGA 0.76.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. Mexico atk 1.15 def 0.48; Ecuador atk 1.02 def 0.66.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.1491/0.8529 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda Mexico 1.17, Ecuador 0.59
after 90% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'Mexico': ['No major absences reported'], 'Ecuador': ['No major absences reported']}.
Context: Round of 32. Mexico (host, nominal home) at Estadio Azteca vs a defensively strong Ecuador. neutral=False applies the home boost to Mexico, but it is the generic ~10% edge, NOT a venue ALTITUDE term — so the Mexico number is still a floor. Knockout: a draw goes to ET/pens.
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 Mexico 49.6% /
draw 34.0% / Ecuador 16.4%. Winner Mexico; score 1-0; fair AH Mexico -0.50.
Over 2.5 26.6%; BTTS 33.1%.
4. EVENTS. Referee TBD: 4.2 Y + 0.13 R/match
blended (weight 0.20) with WC base 2.6438 -> expected
cards 2.99, P(over 3.5) 35.0%; P(any red)
12.2%. Corners expected 6.7 (scale
0.964) -> P(over 8.5) 23.9%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.