WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
🇲🇽 Mexico vs England 🏴 WINNER MISS
FIFA World Cup 2026, Round of 16 · Estadio Azteca, Mexico City (Mexico host)
Kickoff Jul 06, 2026 · 00:00 UTC
Kickoff Jul 06, 2026 · 00:00 UTC
Round of 16 · who goes through
To advance: Mexico 61.0% / England 39.0%
= P(win in 90′) + ½·P(draw); a level game at 90′ goes to extra time / penalties (treated as a coin flip). 1X2 and Asian handicap (Mexico -0.25) below are the 90-minute markets.
Final (90′) · Mexico 2–3 England
England advanced · model to-advance pick Mexico 61.0% ADVANCE CALL MISS
Goals: 36' Jude Bellingham (England); 38' Jude Bellingham (England); 42' Julián Quiñones (Mexico); 60' Harry Kane (England); 69' Raúl Jiménez (Mexico)
Actual stats: xG 1.88 – 1.61 · 14 corners · 7 cards (1 red)
Prediction vs result 0/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mexico | England (2-3) | MISS |
| Score | 0-0 | 2-3 | MISS |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 (71.5%) | 5 goals | MISS |
| BTTS | No (63.2%) | Yes | MISS |
| Corners | Under 8.5 (57.2%) | 14 corners | MISS |
| Cards | Under 3.5 (65.0%) | 7 cards | MISS |
| Red card | No (87.8%) | Yes | MISS |
| AH | Mexico -0.25 | Loss | MISS |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico win | 43.8% | 3.10 | 30.7% | +35.8% |
| Draw | 34.3% | 3.20 | 29.7% | +9.7% |
| England win | 21.9% | 2.40 | 39.6% | -47.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 28.5% | 2.30 | 41.3% | -34.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 71.5% | 1.62 | 58.7% | +15.6% |
| Both teams score: yes | 36.8% | 1.95 | 48.0% | -28.3% |
| Both teams score: no | 63.2% | 1.80 | 52.0% | +13.8% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 8.15) | 42.8% | 2.00 | 46.3% | -14.4% |
| Under 8.5 corners | 57.2% | 1.73 | 53.7% | -1.2% |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 2.99) | 35.0% | 2.20 | 42.3% | -22.9% |
| Under 3.5 cards | 65.0% | 1.62 | 57.7% | +5.0% |
| Any red card | 12.2% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals Mexico 1.11 – 0.73 England · fair Asian handicap Mexico -0.25
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — Mexico vs England (FIFA World Cup 2026, Round of 16)
Venue: Estadio Azteca, Mexico City (Mexico host)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
Mexico: record WDDWWWWWWW, 2.10 GF / 0.20 GA,
xG 1.41 / xGA 0.54.
England: record WWDLWWWDWW, 1.70 GF / 0.50 GA,
xG 1.91 / xGA 0.64.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. Mexico atk 1.21 def 0.48; England atk 1.28 def 0.59.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.1491/0.8529 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda Mexico 1.11, England 0.73
after 90% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'Mexico': ['No major absences reported'], 'England': ['No major absences reported']}.
Context: Round of 16. Mexico (host, nominal home) at Estadio Azteca vs England. neutral=False applies the home boost to Mexico, but it is the generic ~10% edge, NOT a venue ALTITUDE term — 2,240 m at Azteca, England fly in from sea level, so the Mexico number is still a floor. England favoured on talent. Knockout: a draw goes to ET/pens.
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 Mexico 43.8% /
draw 34.3% / England 21.9%. Winner Mexico; score 0-0; fair AH Mexico -0.25.
Over 2.5 28.5%; BTTS 36.8%.
4. EVENTS. Referee TBD: 4.2 Y + 0.13 R/match
blended (weight 0.20) with WC base 2.6438 -> expected
cards 2.99, P(over 3.5) 35.0%; P(any red)
12.2%. Corners expected 8.1 (scale
0.964) -> P(over 8.5) 42.8%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.