WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
🇲🇽 Mexico vs South Korea 🇰🇷 WINNER HIT
FIFA World Cup 2026, Group A, Matchday 2 · Mexico (HOST — home advantage applies)
Kickoff Jun 19, 2026 · 01:00 UTC
Kickoff Jun 19, 2026 · 01:00 UTC
Final · Mexico 1–0 South Korea
Goals: 50' Luis Romo (Mexico)
Actual stats: xG 0.53 – 0.91 · 2 corners · 2 cards (0 red)
Prediction vs result 7/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mexico | Mexico (1-0) | HIT |
| Score | 1-0 | 1-0 | HIT |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 (61.6%) | 1 goals | HIT |
| BTTS | No (54.5%) | No | HIT |
| Corners | Under 8.5 (66.0%) | 2 corners | HIT |
| Cards | Over 3.5 (53.3%) | 2 cards | MISS |
| Red card | No (88.2%) | No | HIT |
| AH | Mexico -0.25 | Full Win | HIT |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico win | 44.9% | 2.00 | 47.2% | -10.3% |
| Draw | 30.1% | 3.30 | 28.6% | -0.6% |
| South Korea win | 25.0% | 3.90 | 24.2% | -2.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.5% | 2.30 | 41.3% | -11.6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 61.6% | 1.62 | 58.7% | -0.6% |
| Both teams score: yes | 45.5% | 2.00 | 46.7% | -9.0% |
| Both teams score: no | 54.5% | 1.75 | 53.3% | -4.6% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 7.51) | 34.0% | 1.73 | 53.7% | -41.3% |
| Under 8.5 corners | 66.0% | 2.00 | 46.3% | +32.1% |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 3.83) | 53.3% | 2.00 | 46.3% | +6.5% |
| Under 3.5 cards | 46.7% | 1.73 | 53.7% | -19.3% |
| Any red card | 11.8% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals Mexico 1.31 – 0.93 South Korea · fair Asian handicap Mexico -0.25
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — Mexico vs South Korea (FIFA World Cup 2026, Group A, Matchday 2)
Venue: Mexico (HOST — home advantage applies)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
Mexico: record LWWWDDWWWW, 1.80 GF / 0.40 GA,
xG 1.35 / xGA 0.68.
South Korea: record DLWWWLLWWW, 1.50 GF / 1.30 GA,
xG 1.57 / xGA 0.95.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. Mexico atk 1.10 def 0.59; South Korea atk 1.01 def 0.82.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.1012/0.8974 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda Mexico 1.31, South Korea 0.93
after 85% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'Mexico': ['No major absences reported'], 'South Korea': ['No major absences reported']}.
Context: Group A MD2. Mexico are co-HOSTS — home advantage applies (not neutral). South Korea (beat Czechia in MD1) travelling. Card-happy referee (Tejera ~5/game).
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 Mexico 44.9% /
draw 30.1% / South Korea 25.0%. Winner Mexico; score 1-0; fair AH Mexico -0.25.
Over 2.5 38.5%; BTTS 45.5%.
4. EVENTS. Referee Gustavo Tejera (Uruguay): 5.1 Y + 0.12 R/match
blended (weight 0.32) with WC base 3.178 -> expected
cards 3.83, P(over 3.5) 53.3%; P(any red)
11.8%. Corners expected 7.5 (scale
0.9509) -> P(over 8.5) 34.0%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.