WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
Netherlands vs Japan WINNER MISS
FIFA World Cup 2026, Group F, Matchday 1 · AT&T Stadium, Arlington TX (indoor, sea level, neutral site)
Kickoff Jun 14, 2026 · 20:00 UTC
Kickoff Jun 14, 2026 · 20:00 UTC
Final · Netherlands 2–2 Japan
Goals: 51' Virgil van Dijk (Netherlands); 57' Keito Nakamura (Japan); 64' Crysencio Summerville (Netherlands); 89' Daichi Kamada (Japan)
Actual stats: xG 0.78 – 0.59 · 9 corners · 3 cards (0 red)
Prediction vs result 2/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Japan | Draw (2-2) | MISS |
| Score | 1-1 | 2-2 | MISS |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 (58.8%) | 4 goals | MISS |
| BTTS | No (51.2%) | Yes | MISS |
| Corners | Over 8.5 (50.2%) | 9 corners | HIT |
| Cards | Over 3.5 (52.4%) | 3 cards | MISS |
| Red card | No (89.1%) | No | HIT |
| AH | Netherlands +0.00 | Push | PUSH |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands win | 32.2% | 2.00 | 47.3% | -35.5% |
| Draw | 29.8% | 3.50 | 27.1% | +4.4% |
| Japan win | 37.9% | 3.70 | 25.6% | +40.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.2% | 2.00 | 47.4% | -17.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 58.8% | 1.80 | 52.6% | +5.8% |
| Both teams score: yes | 48.8% | 1.80 | 52.0% | -12.1% |
| Both teams score: no | 51.2% | 1.95 | 48.0% | -0.2% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 8.69) | 50.2% | — | — | — |
| Under 8.5 corners | 49.8% | — | — | — |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 3.79) | 52.4% | — | — | — |
| Under 3.5 cards | 47.6% | — | — | — |
| Any red card | 10.9% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals Netherlands 1.12 – 1.23 Japan · fair Asian handicap Netherlands +0.00
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — Netherlands vs Japan (FIFA World Cup 2026, Group F, Matchday 1)
Venue: AT&T Stadium, Arlington TX (indoor, sea level, neutral site)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
Netherlands: record DWWWDWWDLW, 2.20 GF / 0.80 GA,
xG 1.99 / xGA 0.74.
Japan: record WDLDWWWWWW, 1.40 GF / 0.60 GA,
xG 1.33 / xGA 1.4.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. Netherlands atk 1.14 def 0.84; Japan atk 1.12 def 0.73.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.0/1.0 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda Netherlands 1.12, Japan 1.23
after 85% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'Netherlands': ['No major absences reported'], 'Japan': ['No major absences reported']}.
Context: Group F opener. Netherlands deeper/favoured; Japan a strong, well-organised side (beat Germany & Spain in 2022). Neutral venue, both travelling.
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 Netherlands 32.2% /
draw 29.8% / Japan 37.9%. Winner Japan; score 1-1; fair AH Netherlands +0.00.
Over 2.5 41.2%; BTTS 48.8%.
4. EVENTS. Referee Ismail Elfath (USA): 3.9 Y + 0.1 R/match
blended (weight 0.47) with WC base 3.6027 -> expected
cards 3.79, P(over 3.5) 52.4%; P(any red)
10.9%. Corners expected 8.7 (scale
1.0341) -> P(over 8.5) 50.2%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.