WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
🇳🇱 Netherlands vs Sweden 🇸🇪 WINNER HIT
FIFA World Cup 2026, Group F, Matchday 3 · Neutral site (USA)
Kickoff Jun 20, 2026 · 17:00 UTC
Kickoff Jun 20, 2026 · 17:00 UTC
Final · Netherlands 5–1 Sweden
Goals: 5' Brian Brobbey (Netherlands); 17' Brian Brobbey (Netherlands); 47' Cody Gakpo (Netherlands); 54' Cody Gakpo (Netherlands); 59' Anthony Elanga (Sweden); 89' Crysencio Summerville (Netherlands)
Actual stats: xG 2.47 – 0.99 · 7 corners · 3 cards (0 red)
Prediction vs result 6/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Netherlands | Netherlands (5-1) | HIT |
| Score | 1-1 | 5-1 | MISS |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 (56.2%) | 6 goals | HIT |
| BTTS | Yes (58.7%) | Yes | HIT |
| Corners | Over 8.5 (51.8%) | 7 corners | MISS |
| Cards | Under 3.5 (56.1%) | 3 cards | HIT |
| Red card | No (88.2%) | No | HIT |
| AH | Netherlands -0.50 | Full Win | HIT |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands win | 50.4% | 1.75 | 54.7% | -11.9% |
| Draw | 24.5% | 3.80 | 25.2% | -6.8% |
| Sweden win | 25.1% | 4.75 | 20.1% | +19.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.2% | 1.80 | 52.6% | +1.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.8% | 2.00 | 47.4% | -12.3% |
| Both teams score: yes | 58.7% | 1.80 | 52.0% | +5.7% |
| Both teams score: no | 41.3% | 1.95 | 48.0% | -19.5% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 8.8) | 51.8% | — | — | — |
| Under 8.5 corners | 48.2% | — | — | — |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 3.39) | 43.9% | 2.00 | 46.3% | -12.2% |
| Under 3.5 cards | 56.1% | 1.73 | 53.7% | -3.1% |
| Any red card | 11.8% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals Netherlands 1.76 – 1.21 Sweden · fair Asian handicap Netherlands -0.50
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — Netherlands vs Sweden (FIFA World Cup 2026, Group F, Matchday 3)
Venue: Neutral site (USA)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
Netherlands: record WWWDWWDLWD, 2.30 GF / 0.90 GA,
xG 1.99 / xGA 0.78.
Sweden: record LLLLDWWLDW, 1.60 GF / 1.90 GA,
xG 1.31 / xGA 1.84.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. Netherlands atk 1.17 def 0.86; Sweden atk 1.09 def 1.29.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.0/1.0 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda Netherlands 1.76, Sweden 1.21
after 85% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'Netherlands': ['No major absences reported'], 'Sweden': ['No major absences reported']}.
Context: Group F MD3. Netherlands favoured; Sweden (thrashed Tunisia 5-1) dangerous. Neutral venue. MD3 rotation risk if decided.
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 Netherlands 50.4% /
draw 24.5% / Sweden 25.1%. Winner Netherlands; score 1-1; fair AH Netherlands -0.50.
Over 2.5 56.2%; BTTS 58.7%.
4. EVENTS. Referee TBD: 4.0 Y + 0.12 R/match
blended (weight 0.31) with WC base 3.0543 -> expected
cards 3.39, P(over 3.5) 43.9%; P(any red)
11.8%. Corners expected 8.8 (scale
0.9834) -> P(over 8.5) 51.8%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.