WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results ยท a live, honest experiment
๐ณ๐ด Norway vs England ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ WINNER MISS
FIFA World Cup 2026, Quarter-final ยท Neutral site (Hard Rock Stadium, Miami)
Kickoff Jul 11, 2026 ยท 21:00 UTC
Kickoff Jul 11, 2026 ยท 21:00 UTC
Quarter-final ยท who goes through
To advance: Norway 40.0% / England 60.1%
= P(win in 90โฒ) + ยฝยทP(draw); a level game at 90โฒ goes to extra time / penalties (treated as a coin flip). 1X2 and Asian handicap (Norway +0.50) below are the 90-minute markets.
Final (90โฒ) ยท Norway 1โ1 England
England advanced after extra time (1-2) ยท model to-advance pick England 60.1% ADVANCE CALL HIT
Goals: 36' Andreas Schjelderup (Norway); 45' Jude Bellingham (England); 93' Jude Bellingham (England)
Actual stats: xG 0.68 โ 1.04 ยท 11 corners ยท 1 cards (0 red)
Prediction vs result 6/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | England | Draw (1-1) | MISS |
| Score | 1-1 | 1-1 | HIT |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 (50.4%) | 2 goals | MISS |
| BTTS | Yes (55.0%) | Yes | HIT |
| Corners | Over 8.5 (62.5%) | 11 corners | HIT |
| Cards | Under 3.5 (65.0%) | 1 cards | HIT |
| Red card | No (87.8%) | No | HIT |
| AH | Norway +0.50 | Full Win | HIT |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norway win | 26.8% | 4.00 | 23.9% | +7.1% |
| Draw | 26.4% | 3.70 | 25.8% | -2.4% |
| England win | 46.9% | 1.90 | 50.3% | -11.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.4% | 1.73 | 54.9% | -12.9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.5% | 2.10 | 45.1% | +4.1% |
| Both teams score: yes | 55.0% | 1.67 | 55.8% | -8.4% |
| Both teams score: no | 45.0% | 2.10 | 44.2% | -5.4% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 9.64) | 62.5% | โ | โ | โ |
| Under 8.5 corners | 37.5% | โ | โ | โ |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 2.99) | 35.0% | โ | โ | โ |
| Under 3.5 cards | 65.0% | โ | โ | โ |
| Any red card | 12.2% | โ | โ | โ |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals Norway 1.15 โ 1.57 England ยท fair Asian handicap Norway +0.50
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). โโโ = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE โ Norway vs England (FIFA World Cup 2026, Quarter-final)
Venue: Neutral site (Hard Rock Stadium, Miami)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
Norway: record WLDWDWWLWW, 2.10 GF / 1.40 GA,
xG 1.66 / xGA 1.39.
England: record WDLWWWDWWW, 1.80 GF / 0.70 GA,
xG 1.98 / xGA 0.72.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. Norway atk 1.46 def 0.90; England atk 1.34 def 0.65.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.0/1.0 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies โ a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda Norway 1.15, England 1.57
after 90% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'Norway': ['No major absences reported'], 'England': ['No major absences reported']}.
Context: Quarter-final. Norway โ who put Brazil out against a 2.73-0.84 xG deficit โ vs an England side the model has under-rated twice (DR Congo, Mexico) but that keeps winning. Haaland vs Bellingham/Kane. Recalibrated settings. Knockout: a draw goes to ET/pens. Neutral venue.
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 Norway 26.8% /
draw 26.4% / England 46.9%. Winner England; score 1-1; fair AH Norway +0.50.
Over 2.5 50.4%; BTTS 55.0%.
4. EVENTS. Referee TBD: 4.2 Y + 0.13 R/match
blended (weight 0.20) with WC base 2.6438 -> expected
cards 2.99, P(over 3.5) 35.0%; P(any red)
12.2%. Corners expected 9.6 (scale
0.964) -> P(over 8.5) 62.5%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.