WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
🇳🇴 Norway vs Senegal 🇸🇳 WINNER HIT
FIFA World Cup 2026, Group I, Matchday 2 · Neutral site (USA)
Kickoff Jun 23, 2026 · 00:00 UTC
Kickoff Jun 23, 2026 · 00:00 UTC
Final · Norway 3–2 Senegal
Goals: 43' Marcus Pedersen (Norway); 48' Erling Haaland (Norway); 53' Ismaïla Sarr (Senegal); 58' Erling Haaland (Norway); 90' Ismaïla Sarr (Senegal)
Actual stats: xG 2.2 – 1.72 · 9 corners · 0 cards (0 red)
Prediction vs result 6/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Norway | Norway (3-2) | HIT |
| Score | 1-1 | 3-2 | MISS |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 (55.0%) | 5 goals | HIT |
| BTTS | Yes (57.3%) | Yes | HIT |
| Corners | Under 8.5 (54.8%) | 9 corners | MISS |
| Cards | Under 3.5 (57.9%) | 0 cards | HIT |
| Red card | No (87.8%) | No | HIT |
| AH | Norway -0.50 | Full Win | HIT |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norway win | 51.8% | 2.20 | 43.4% | +13.9% |
| Draw | 24.5% | 3.50 | 27.3% | -14.1% |
| Senegal win | 23.7% | 3.25 | 29.4% | -23.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.0% | 1.91 | 50.0% | +4.9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.0% | 1.91 | 50.0% | -14.0% |
| Both teams score: yes | 57.3% | 1.70 | 54.7% | -2.5% |
| Both teams score: no | 42.7% | 2.05 | 45.3% | -12.5% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 8.32) | 45.2% | — | — | — |
| Under 8.5 corners | 54.8% | — | — | — |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 3.3) | 42.1% | 2.20 | 42.3% | -7.4% |
| Under 3.5 cards | 57.9% | 1.62 | 57.7% | -6.4% |
| Any red card | 12.2% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals Norway 1.77 – 1.15 Senegal · fair Asian handicap Norway -0.50
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — Norway vs Senegal (FIFA World Cup 2026, Group I, Matchday 2)
Venue: Neutral site (USA)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
Norway: record WWDWWLDWDW, 3.40 GF / 0.90 GA,
xG 2.47 / xGA 0.87.
Senegal: record WWWWLWWLDL, 1.60 GF / 1.10 GA,
xG 1.7 / xGA 1.45.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. Norway atk 1.73 def 0.81; Senegal atk 1.03 def 0.84.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.0/1.0 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda Norway 1.77, Senegal 1.15
after 85% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'Norway': ['No major absences reported'], 'Senegal': ['No major absences reported']}.
Context: Group I. Genuinely competitive: Norway (Haaland) vs a strong Senegal side. Roughly even on tiers. Neutral venue.
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 Norway 51.8% /
draw 24.5% / Senegal 23.7%. Winner Norway; score 1-1; fair AH Norway -0.50.
Over 2.5 55.0%; BTTS 57.3%.
4. EVENTS. Referee TBD: 4.2 Y + 0.13 R/match
blended (weight 0.28) with WC base 2.899 -> expected
cards 3.30, P(over 3.5) 42.1%; P(any red)
12.2%. Corners expected 8.3 (scale
0.9508) -> P(over 8.5) 45.2%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.