WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
New Zealand vs Egypt 🇪🇬 WINNER HIT
FIFA World Cup 2026, Group G, Matchday 3 · Neutral site (Vancouver)
Kickoff Jun 22, 2026 · 01:00 UTC
Kickoff Jun 22, 2026 · 01:00 UTC
Final · New Zealand 1–3 Egypt
Goals: 15' Finn Surman (New Zealand); 58' Mostafa Ziko (Egypt); 67' Mohamed Salah (Egypt); 82' Mahmoud Trézéguet (Egypt)
Actual stats: xG 1.24 – 1.87 · 7 corners · 3 cards (0 red)
Prediction vs result 5/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Egypt | Egypt (1-3) | HIT |
| Score | 1-1 | 1-3 | MISS |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 (52.1%) | 4 goals | MISS |
| BTTS | Yes (52.5%) | Yes | HIT |
| Corners | Under 8.5 (50.1%) | 7 corners | HIT |
| Cards | Under 3.5 (57.2%) | 3 cards | HIT |
| Red card | No (82.3%) | No | HIT |
| AH | New Zealand +0.50 | Loss | MISS |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Zealand win | 24.8% | 5.75 | 16.5% | +42.4% |
| Draw | 26.8% | 4.10 | 23.1% | +9.8% |
| Egypt win | 48.4% | 1.57 | 60.4% | -23.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.9% | 2.00 | 47.4% | -4.2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.1% | 1.80 | 52.6% | -6.2% |
| Both teams score: yes | 52.5% | 2.05 | 45.3% | +7.6% |
| Both teams score: no | 47.5% | 1.70 | 54.7% | -19.2% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 8.66) | 49.9% | 1.73 | 53.7% | -13.9% |
| Under 8.5 corners | 50.1% | 2.00 | 46.3% | +0.3% |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 3.34) | 42.8% | — | — | — |
| Under 3.5 cards | 57.2% | — | — | — |
| Any red card | 17.7% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals New Zealand 1.06 – 1.55 Egypt · fair Asian handicap New Zealand +0.50
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — New Zealand vs Egypt (FIFA World Cup 2026, Group G, Matchday 3)
Venue: Neutral site (Vancouver)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
New Zealand: record LLDLLLWLLD, 0.90 GF / 1.90 GA,
xG 1.02 / xGA 1.56.
Egypt: record DWWLLWDWLD, 1.50 GF / 1.10 GA,
xG 0.81 / xGA 1.09.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. New Zealand atk 0.83 def 1.25; Egypt atk 1.00 def 0.92.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.0/1.0 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda New Zealand 1.06, Egypt 1.55
after 85% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'New Zealand': ['OFC slate — thin xG data'], 'Egypt': ['No major absences reported']}.
Context: Group G MD3. Egypt (Salah) favoured; New Zealand's OFC slate makes their rating lower-confidence. Neutral venue. MD3 risk.
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 New Zealand 24.8% /
draw 26.8% / Egypt 48.4%. Winner Egypt; score 1-1; fair AH New Zealand +0.50.
Over 2.5 47.9%; BTTS 52.5%.
4. EVENTS. Referee Omar Al-Ali (UAE): 4.08 Y + 0.26 R/match
blended (weight 0.29) with WC base 2.9307 -> expected
cards 3.34, P(over 3.5) 42.8%; P(any red)
17.7%. Corners expected 8.7 (scale
0.9785) -> P(over 8.5) 49.9%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.