WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
Panama vs Croatia 🇭🇷 WINNER HIT
FIFA World Cup 2026, Group L, Matchday 2 · Neutral site (USA)
Kickoff Jun 23, 2026 · 23:00 UTC
Kickoff Jun 23, 2026 · 23:00 UTC
Final · Panama 0–1 Croatia
Goals: 54' Ante Budimir (Croatia)
Actual stats: xG 0.55 – 1.65 · 9 corners · 2 cards (0 red)
Prediction vs result 3/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Croatia | Croatia (0-1) | HIT |
| Score | 1-1 | 0-1 | MISS |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 (54.6%) | 1 goals | MISS |
| BTTS | Yes (58.5%) | No | MISS |
| Corners | Under 8.5 (66.6%) | 9 corners | MISS |
| Cards | Under 3.5 (59.7%) | 2 cards | HIT |
| Red card | No (87.8%) | No | HIT |
| AH | Panama +0.25 | Loss | MISS |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panama win | 28.6% | 7.50 | 12.7% | +114.9% |
| Draw | 25.5% | 4.20 | 22.7% | +7.1% |
| Croatia win | 45.8% | 1.48 | 64.5% | -32.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.6% | 1.67 | 56.9% | -9.0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.4% | 2.20 | 43.1% | -0.2% |
| Both teams score: yes | 58.5% | 1.80 | 52.0% | +5.3% |
| Both teams score: no | 41.5% | 1.95 | 48.0% | -19.1% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 7.47) | 33.4% | — | — | — |
| Under 8.5 corners | 66.6% | — | — | — |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 3.22) | 40.3% | — | — | — |
| Under 3.5 cards | 59.7% | — | — | — |
| Any red card | 12.2% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals Panama 1.26 – 1.64 Croatia · fair Asian handicap Panama +0.25
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — Panama vs Croatia (FIFA World Cup 2026, Group L, Matchday 2)
Venue: Neutral site (USA)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
Panama: record WWDLDWLWDL, 1.70 GF / 1.60 GA,
xG 0.69 / xGA 1.55.
Croatia: record WDWWWWLLWL, 2.00 GF / 1.40 GA,
xG 1.73 / xGA 1.16.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. Panama atk 0.99 def 1.17; Croatia atk 1.10 def 0.98.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.0/1.0 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda Panama 1.26, Croatia 1.64
after 90% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'Panama': ['No major absences reported'], 'Croatia': ['No major absences reported']}.
Context: Group L. Croatia favoured but coming off a 4-2 MD1 loss to England; Panama a CONCACAF underdog after losing to Ghana. Croatia need a result. Neutral venue.
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 Panama 28.6% /
draw 25.5% / Croatia 45.8%. Winner Croatia; score 1-1; fair AH Panama +0.25.
Over 2.5 54.6%; BTTS 58.5%.
4. EVENTS. Referee TBD: 4.2 Y + 0.13 R/match
blended (weight 0.26) with WC base 2.8392 -> expected
cards 3.22, P(over 3.5) 40.3%; P(any red)
12.2%. Corners expected 7.5 (scale
0.9325) -> P(over 8.5) 33.4%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.