WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
🇵🇾 Paraguay vs Australia 🇦🇺 WINNER MISS
FIFA World Cup 2026, Group D, Matchday 3 · Neutral site (Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara)
Kickoff Jun 26, 2026 · 02:00 UTC
Kickoff Jun 26, 2026 · 02:00 UTC
Final · Paraguay 0–0 Australia
Goals: —
Actual stats: xG 0.24 – 0.55 · 4 corners · 2 cards (0 red)
Prediction vs result 6/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Paraguay | Draw (0-0) | MISS |
| Score | 0-0 | 0-0 | HIT |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 (65.6%) | 0 goals | HIT |
| BTTS | No (56.8%) | No | HIT |
| Corners | Under 8.5 (59.0%) | 4 corners | HIT |
| Cards | Under 3.5 (63.2%) | 2 cards | HIT |
| Red card | No (87.8%) | No | HIT |
| AH | Paraguay +0.00 | Push | PUSH |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paraguay win | 37.1% | 2.63 | 36.1% | -2.3% |
| Draw | 32.4% | 2.30 | 41.3% | -25.5% |
| Australia win | 30.5% | 4.20 | 22.6% | +28.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34.4% | 3.40 | 28.2% | +16.9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 65.6% | 1.33 | 71.8% | -12.5% |
| Both teams score: yes | 43.2% | 2.25 | 41.1% | -2.8% |
| Both teams score: no | 56.8% | 1.57 | 58.9% | -10.7% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 8.02) | 41.0% | — | — | — |
| Under 8.5 corners | 59.0% | — | — | — |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 3.07) | 36.8% | — | — | — |
| Under 3.5 cards | 63.2% | — | — | — |
| Any red card | 12.2% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals Paraguay 1.10 – 0.98 Australia · fair Asian handicap Paraguay +0.00
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — Paraguay vs Australia (FIFA World Cup 2026, Group D, Matchday 3)
Venue: Neutral site (Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
Paraguay: record WDLLWWLWLW, 1.40 GF / 1.30 GA,
xG 1.64 / xGA 1.4.
Australia: record WLLLWWLDWL, 1.10 GF / 1.10 GA,
xG 0.88 / xGA 1.21.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. Paraguay atk 0.93 def 0.91; Australia atk 0.80 def 0.89.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.0/1.0 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda Paraguay 1.10, Australia 0.98
after 90% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'Paraguay': ['No major absences reported'], 'Australia': ['No major absences reported']}.
Context: Group D MD3. Tight, low-scoring profile: Paraguay (organised, defensive) vs Australia. Both likely needing a result. Neutral venue.
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 Paraguay 37.1% /
draw 32.4% / Australia 30.5%. Winner Paraguay; score 0-0; fair AH Paraguay +0.00.
Over 2.5 34.4%; BTTS 43.2%.
4. EVENTS. Referee TBD: 4.2 Y + 0.13 R/match
blended (weight 0.22) with WC base 2.7044 -> expected
cards 3.07, P(over 3.5) 36.8%; P(any red)
12.2%. Corners expected 8.0 (scale
0.9899) -> P(over 8.5) 41.0%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.